Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century
Wang, Bin1; Liu, De L.1,2,3; O'Leary, Garry J.4; Asseng, Senthold5; Macadam, Ian2,3,6; Lines-Kelly, Rebecca7; Yang, Xihua8; Clark, Anthony9; Crean, Jason9; Sides, Timothy1; Xing, Hongtao1,10; Mi, Chunrong11; Yu, Qiang10,12,13
Corresponding AuthorWang, Bin(bin.a.wang@dpi.nsw.gov.au)
AbstractClimate change threatens global wheat production and food security, including the wheat industry in Australia. Many studies have examined the impacts of changes in local climate on wheat yield per hectare, but there has been no assessment of changes in land area available for production due to changing climate. It is also unclear how total wheat production would change under future climate when autonomous adaptation options are adopted. We applied species distribution models to investigate future changes in areas climatically suitable for growing wheat in Australia. A crop model was used to assess wheat yield per hectare in these areas. Our results show that there is an overall tendency for a decrease in the areas suitable for growing wheat and a decline in the yield of the northeast Australian wheat belt. This results in reduced national wheat production although future climate change may benefit South Australia and Victoria. These projected outcomes infer that similar wheat-growing regions of the globe might also experience decreases in wheat production. Some cropping adaptation measures increase wheat yield per hectare and provide significant mitigation of the negative effects of climate change on national wheat production by 2041-2060. However, any positive effects will be insufficient to prevent a likely decline in production under a high CO2 emission scenario by 2081-2100 due to increasing losses in suitable wheat-growing areas. Therefore, additional adaptation strategies along with investment in wheat production are needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security. This scenario analysis provides a foundation towards understanding changes in Australia's wheat cropping systems, which will assist in developing adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on global wheat production.
Keywordadaptation options APSIM model climate change climate suitability species distribution model wheat yield
Indexed BySCI
WOS Research AreaBiodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectBiodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000433717700016
Citation statistics
Cited Times:13[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding AuthorWang, Bin
Affiliation1.Wagga Wagga Agr Inst, NSW Dept Primary Ind, Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia
2.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia
3.Univ New South Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia
4.Agr Victoria Res, Dept Econ Dev Jobs Transport & Resources, Horsham, Vic, Australia
5.Univ Florida, Agr & Biol Engn Dept, Gainesville, FL USA
6.Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England
7.NSW Dept Primary Ind, Wollongbar, NSW, Australia
8.New South Wales Off Environm & Heritage, Parramatta, NSW, Australia
9.Orange Agr Inst, NSW Dept Primary Ind, Orange, NSW, Australia
10.Univ Technol Sydney, Sch Life Sci, Fac Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia
11.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
12.Northwest A&F Univ, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
13.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wang, Bin,Liu, De L.,O'Leary, Garry J.,et al. Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2018,24(6):2403-2415.
APA Wang, Bin.,Liu, De L..,O'Leary, Garry J..,Asseng, Senthold.,Macadam, Ian.,...&Yu, Qiang.(2018).Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,24(6),2403-2415.
MLA Wang, Bin,et al."Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 24.6(2018):2403-2415.
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