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Precipitation Extended Linear Scaling Method for Correcting GCM Precipitation and Its Evaluation and Implication in the Transboundary Jhelum River Basin
Mahmood, Rashid1; Jia, Shaofeng1; Tripathi, Nitin Kumar2; Shrestha, Sangam3
2018-05-01
Source PublicationATMOSPHERE
ISSN2073-4433
Volume9Issue:5Pages:15
Corresponding AuthorMahmood, Rashid(rashi1254@gmail.com) ; Jia, Shaofeng(Jiasf@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractIn this study, a linear scaling method, precipitation extended linear scaling (PELS), is proposed to correct precipitation simulated by GCMs. In this method, monthly scaling factors were extended to daily scaling factors (DSFs) to improve the daily variation in precipitation. In addition, DSFs were also checked for outliers and smoothed with a smoothing filter to reduce the effect of noisy DSFs before correcting the GCM's precipitation. This method was evaluated using the observed precipitation of 21 climate stations and five GCMs in the Jhelum River basin, Pakistan and India, for the period of 1986-2000 and also compared with the original linear scaling (OLS) method. The evaluation results showed substantial improvement in the corrected GCM precipitation, especially in case of mean and standard deviation values. Although PELS and OLS showed comparable results, the overall performance of PELS was better than OLS. After Evaluation, PELS was applied to the future precipitation from five GCMs for the period of 2041-2070 under RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 in the Jhelum basin, and the future changes in precipitation were calculated with respect to 1971-2000. According to average all GCMs, annual precipitation was projected to decrease by 4% and 6% in the basin under RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. Although two seasons, spring and fall, showed some increasing precipitation, the monsoon season showed severe decrease in precipitation, with 22% (RCP8.5) and 29% (RCP2.6), and even more reduction in July and August, up to 34% (RCP8.5) and 36% (RCP2.6). This means if the climate of the world follows the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, then there will be a severe reduction in precipitation in the Jhelum basin during peak months. It was also observed that decline in precipitation was higher under RCP2.6 than RCP8.5.
Keywordclimate change downscaling precipitation extended linear scaling Jhelum basin Pakistan
DOI10.3390/atmos9050160
WOS KeywordCLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS ; BIAS CORRECTION METHODS ; 3 MOUNTAINOUS BASINS ; DOWNSCALING TEMPERATURE ; HYDROLOGIC IMPACT ; UNITED-STATES ; SCENARIOS ; PAKISTAN ; CMIP5 ; RUNOFF
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNatural Sciences Fund of China[41471463] ; President's International Fellowship Initiative of CAS
Funding OrganizationNatural Sciences Fund of China ; President's International Fellowship Initiative of CAS
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000435190300003
PublisherMDPI
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/54701
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorMahmood, Rashid; Jia, Shaofeng
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Asian Inst Technol, Remote Sensing & Geog Informat Syst, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand
3.Asian Inst Technol, Water Engn & Management, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Mahmood, Rashid,Jia, Shaofeng,Tripathi, Nitin Kumar,et al. Precipitation Extended Linear Scaling Method for Correcting GCM Precipitation and Its Evaluation and Implication in the Transboundary Jhelum River Basin[J]. ATMOSPHERE,2018,9(5):15.
APA Mahmood, Rashid,Jia, Shaofeng,Tripathi, Nitin Kumar,&Shrestha, Sangam.(2018).Precipitation Extended Linear Scaling Method for Correcting GCM Precipitation and Its Evaluation and Implication in the Transboundary Jhelum River Basin.ATMOSPHERE,9(5),15.
MLA Mahmood, Rashid,et al."Precipitation Extended Linear Scaling Method for Correcting GCM Precipitation and Its Evaluation and Implication in the Transboundary Jhelum River Basin".ATMOSPHERE 9.5(2018):15.
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