Long-Term Changes in Global Socioeconomic Benefits of Flood Defenses and Residual Risk Based on CMIP5 Climate Models

doi:10.1002/2017EF000671

IGSNRR OpenIR

	Long-Term Changes in Global Socioeconomic Benefits of Flood Defenses and Residual Risk Based on CMIP5 Climate Models
	Lim, Wee Ho 1,2; Yamazaki, Dai 3,4; Koirala, Sujan 5; Hirabayashi, Yukiko 6; Kanae, Shinjiro 7; Dadson, Simon J.2; Hall, Jim W.2; Sun, Fubao 1,8,9,10
	2018-07-01
Source Publication	EARTHS FUTURE
ISSN	2328-4277
Volume	6 Issue:7 Pages:938-954
Corresponding Author	Sun, Fubao(sunfb@igsnrr.ac.cn)
Abstract	A warmer climate is expected to accelerate the global hydrological cycle, causing more intense precipitation and floods. Despite recent progress in global flood risk assessment, the socioeconomic benefits of flood defenses (i.e., reduction in population/economic exposure) and the residual risk (i.e., residual population/economic exposure) are poorly understood globally and regionally. To address these knowledge gaps, we use the runoff data from a baseline and 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models to drive the Catchment-based Macro-scale Floodplain model incorporating the latest satellite river width information. From the simulated annual maxima, we use a Gumbel distribution to estimate the river water depth-flood return period relationship. We independently evaluate flood impacts on population and economy (i.e., gross domestic product) for a range of flood return periods. We estimate the socioeconomic benefits and the corresponding residual risk for the globe and 26 subcontinental regions. The global population (gross domestic product) exposed to flooding is approximate to 8% (approximate to 7%) per year lower when implementing existing flood protection infrastructure extracted from the FLOod PROtection Standards database. If the current flood defenses were to be unchanged in the future (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 [RCP4.5] and RCP8.5, i.e., approximate to 2 to approximate to 4.3 degrees C above the preindustrial levels), the globe and most of the regions (particularly where developing countries are concentrated) would experience an increase in residual risk. This increase is especially obvious when the gap of climate forcing between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 widens by the end of the 21st century. We finally evaluate the impact of changed flood defense levels on the socioeconomic benefits and the corresponding residual risk.
Keyword	global scale climate change river flooding flood defense benefits residual risk
DOI	10.1002/2017EF000671
WOS Keyword	PRECIPITATION EXTREMES ; WATER-RESOURCES ; RIVER FLOODS ; FRAMEWORK ; CYCLE ; PROJECTIONS ; ADAPTATION ; SUBSIDENCE ; PROTECTION ; DATABASE
Indexed By	SCI
Language	英语
Funding Project	National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602402] ; Oxford Martin Programme on Resource Stewardship in the Oxford Martin School ; Chinese Academy of Sciences President's International Fellowship Initiative[2017PC0068] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Pioneer Hundred Talents Program ; Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan[S-14]
Funding Organization	National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Oxford Martin Programme on Resource Stewardship in the Oxford Martin School ; Chinese Academy of Sciences President's International Fellowship Initiative ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Pioneer Hundred Talents Program ; Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan
WOS Research Area	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS Subject	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS ID	WOS:000441239300001
Publisher	AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
Citation statistics
Document Type	期刊论文
Identifier	http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/54567
Collection	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding Author	Sun, Fubao
Affiliation	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England 3.Univ Tokyo, Inst Ind Sci, Tokyo, Japan 4.Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol, Dept Integrated Climate Change Project Res, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan 5.Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, Dept Biogeochem Integrat, Jena, Germany 6.Shibaura Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Tokyo, Japan 7.Tokyo Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Tokyo, Japan 8.Hexi Univ, Ecol Inst Qilian Mt, Zhangye, Peoples R China 9.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China 10.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Water Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714	Lim, Wee Ho,Yamazaki, Dai,Koirala, Sujan,et al. Long-Term Changes in Global Socioeconomic Benefits of Flood Defenses and Residual Risk Based on CMIP5 Climate Models[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2018,6(7):938-954.
APA	Lim, Wee Ho.,Yamazaki, Dai.,Koirala, Sujan.,Hirabayashi, Yukiko.,Kanae, Shinjiro.,...&Sun, Fubao.(2018).Long-Term Changes in Global Socioeconomic Benefits of Flood Defenses and Residual Risk Based on CMIP5 Climate Models.EARTHS FUTURE,6(7),938-954.
MLA	Lim, Wee Ho,et al."Long-Term Changes in Global Socioeconomic Benefits of Flood Defenses and Residual Risk Based on CMIP5 Climate Models".EARTHS FUTURE 6.7(2018):938-954.

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