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Long-Term Changes in Global Socioeconomic Benefits of Flood Defenses and Residual Risk Based on CMIP5 Climate Models
Lim, Wee Ho1,2; Yamazaki, Dai3,4; Koirala, Sujan5; Hirabayashi, Yukiko6; Kanae, Shinjiro7; Dadson, Simon J.2; Hall, Jim W.2; Sun, Fubao1,8,9,10
2018-07-01
Source PublicationEARTHS FUTURE
ISSN2328-4277
Volume6Issue:7Pages:938-954
Corresponding AuthorSun, Fubao(sunfb@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractA warmer climate is expected to accelerate the global hydrological cycle, causing more intense precipitation and floods. Despite recent progress in global flood risk assessment, the socioeconomic benefits of flood defenses (i.e., reduction in population/economic exposure) and the residual risk (i.e., residual population/economic exposure) are poorly understood globally and regionally. To address these knowledge gaps, we use the runoff data from a baseline and 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models to drive the Catchment-based Macro-scale Floodplain model incorporating the latest satellite river width information. From the simulated annual maxima, we use a Gumbel distribution to estimate the river water depth-flood return period relationship. We independently evaluate flood impacts on population and economy (i.e., gross domestic product) for a range of flood return periods. We estimate the socioeconomic benefits and the corresponding residual risk for the globe and 26 subcontinental regions. The global population (gross domestic product) exposed to flooding is approximate to 8% (approximate to 7%) per year lower when implementing existing flood protection infrastructure extracted from the FLOod PROtection Standards database. If the current flood defenses were to be unchanged in the future (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 [RCP4.5] and RCP8.5, i.e., approximate to 2 to approximate to 4.3 degrees C above the preindustrial levels), the globe and most of the regions (particularly where developing countries are concentrated) would experience an increase in residual risk. This increase is especially obvious when the gap of climate forcing between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 widens by the end of the 21st century. We finally evaluate the impact of changed flood defense levels on the socioeconomic benefits and the corresponding residual risk.
Keywordglobal scale climate change river flooding flood defense benefits residual risk
DOI10.1002/2017EF000671
WOS KeywordPRECIPITATION EXTREMES ; WATER-RESOURCES ; RIVER FLOODS ; FRAMEWORK ; CYCLE ; PROJECTIONS ; ADAPTATION ; SUBSIDENCE ; PROTECTION ; DATABASE
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602402] ; Oxford Martin Programme on Resource Stewardship in the Oxford Martin School ; Chinese Academy of Sciences President's International Fellowship Initiative[2017PC0068] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Pioneer Hundred Talents Program ; Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan[S-14]
Funding OrganizationNational Key Research and Development Program of China ; Oxford Martin Programme on Resource Stewardship in the Oxford Martin School ; Chinese Academy of Sciences President's International Fellowship Initiative ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Pioneer Hundred Talents Program ; Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000441239300001
PublisherAMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
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Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/54567
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorSun, Fubao
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England
3.Univ Tokyo, Inst Ind Sci, Tokyo, Japan
4.Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol, Dept Integrated Climate Change Project Res, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan
5.Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, Dept Biogeochem Integrat, Jena, Germany
6.Shibaura Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Tokyo, Japan
7.Tokyo Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Tokyo, Japan
8.Hexi Univ, Ecol Inst Qilian Mt, Zhangye, Peoples R China
9.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
10.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Water Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Lim, Wee Ho,Yamazaki, Dai,Koirala, Sujan,et al. Long-Term Changes in Global Socioeconomic Benefits of Flood Defenses and Residual Risk Based on CMIP5 Climate Models[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2018,6(7):938-954.
APA Lim, Wee Ho.,Yamazaki, Dai.,Koirala, Sujan.,Hirabayashi, Yukiko.,Kanae, Shinjiro.,...&Sun, Fubao.(2018).Long-Term Changes in Global Socioeconomic Benefits of Flood Defenses and Residual Risk Based on CMIP5 Climate Models.EARTHS FUTURE,6(7),938-954.
MLA Lim, Wee Ho,et al."Long-Term Changes in Global Socioeconomic Benefits of Flood Defenses and Residual Risk Based on CMIP5 Climate Models".EARTHS FUTURE 6.7(2018):938-954.
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