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Impact assessment of climate change on rice yields using the ORYZA model in the Sichuan Basin, China
Xu, Chenchen1,2,3; Wu, Wenxiang1,2; Ge, Quansheng1,2
2018-06-15
Source PublicationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
Volume38Issue:7Pages:2922-2939
Corresponding AuthorWu, Wenxiang(wuwx@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractUnderstanding how different climate factors interact and impact rice yield is essential for effective agricultural management strategies and policies. However, the potential impacts are less clear at the regional scale. In this work, we used the latest version of the ORYZA crop model to evaluate the impacts of climate change and carbon dioxide (CO2) on rice yields in the Sichuan Basin of China based on high-quality agricultural experimental, meteorological and soil data and the incorporation of future climate data generated by five general circulation models (GCMs) under three newly released representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Considering climate change alone, our modelling results indicated a continuing rice reduction for most stations by 2-17, 4-28 and 1-43% under the RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively; when considering the CO2 fertilizer effect, rice yields increased by 3-10, 4-13 and 5-20% under the RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, for most stations, the CO2 fertilizer effect could not completely offset the negative impacts of climate change on rice yields. In addition, temperature and radiation were the main climate factors that cause yield variation by affecting the rice maturity periods (DAE), spikelet fertility factor (SPFERT) and spikelet number (NSP). The uncertainty arising from the climate models was less than 10% under the RCP2.6 scenario, 15% under the RCP4.5 scenario and 20% under the RCP8.5 scenario, indicating good consistency in rice yield simulations. These findings offer insight into the physiological mechanisms and the degree of climate change impacts on rice yields, thus informing appropriate adaptive strategies for rice planting in the Sichuan Basin, China.
Keywordclimate change impact assessment ORYZA v3 model rice yield the Sichuan Basin of China
DOI10.1002/joc.5473
WOS KeywordWATER-USE EFFICIENCY ; ELEVATED CO2 ; NITROGEN ; SIMULATION ; CULTIVARS ; STRESS ; NORTH ; INDIA ; STABILIZATION ; PRODUCTIVITY
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectMinistry of Science and Technology of the people's Republic of China[2016YFA0602402] ; Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences[TSYSJ04]
Funding OrganizationMinistry of Science and Technology of the people's Republic of China ; Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000439792300002
PublisherWILEY
Citation statistics
Cited Times:5[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/54547
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorWu, Wenxiang
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Xu, Chenchen,Wu, Wenxiang,Ge, Quansheng. Impact assessment of climate change on rice yields using the ORYZA model in the Sichuan Basin, China[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(7):2922-2939.
APA Xu, Chenchen,Wu, Wenxiang,&Ge, Quansheng.(2018).Impact assessment of climate change on rice yields using the ORYZA model in the Sichuan Basin, China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(7),2922-2939.
MLA Xu, Chenchen,et al."Impact assessment of climate change on rice yields using the ORYZA model in the Sichuan Basin, China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.7(2018):2922-2939.
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