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Global and regional climate responses to national-committed emission reductions under the Paris agreement
Wang, Fang1; Ge, Quansheng1; Chen, Deliang2; Luterbacher, Juerg3,4; Tokarska, Katarzyna B.5; Hao, Zhixin1
2018
Source PublicationGEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A-PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY
ISSN0435-3676
Volume100Issue:3Pages:240-253
Corresponding AuthorWang, Fang(wangf@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Chen, Deliang(deliang@gvc.gu.se)
AbstractTo stabilize global mean temperature change within the range of 1.5-2.0 degrees C in accordance with the Paris Agreement, countries worldwide submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions with their proposed emission reductions. However, it remains unclear what the resulting climate change in terms of temperature and precipitation would be in response to the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution emission efforts. This study quantifies the global and regional temperature and precipitation changes in response to the updated Intended Nationally Determined Contribution scenarios, using simulations of 14 Fifth Coupled Climate Model Intercomparison Project models. Our results show that Intended Nationally Determined Contribution emissions would lead to a global mean warming of 1.4 degrees C (1.3-1.7 degrees C) in 2030 and 3.2 degrees C (2.6-4.3 degrees C) in 2100, above the preindustrial level (the 1850-1900 average). Spatially, the Arctic is projected to have the largest warming, 2.5 and 3 times the global average for 2030 and 2100, respectively, with strongest positive trends at 70-85 degrees N over Asia, Europe and North America (6.5-9.0 degrees C). The excessive warming under Intended Nationally Determined Contribution scenarios is substantially above the 1.5 degrees C or 2.0 degrees C long-term stabilization level. Global mean precipitation is projected to be similar to preindustrial levels in 2030, and an increase of 6% (4-9%) by 2100 compared with the preindustrial level. Regional precipitation changes will be heterogeneous, with significant increases over the equatorial Pacific (about +120%) and strong decreases over the Mediterranean, North Africa and Central America (-15% - -30%). These results clearly show that it is necessary to adjust and strengthen national mitigation efforts on current Intended Nationally Determined Contributions to meet the long-term temperature target.
KeywordGreenhouse gas emissions Intended Nationally Determined Contributions temperature precipitation regional climate change
DOI10.1080/04353676.2018.1488538
WOS Keyword2 DEGREES-C ; CARBON-CYCLE MODELS ; ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN ; SIMPLER MODEL ; SCENARIOS ; TARGETS ; CMIP5
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Key Research and Development Program by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China[2016YFA0602704] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41771050] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[91537210] ; Belmont Forum ; JPI-Climate, Collaborative Research Action 'INTEGRATE, An integrated data-model study of interactions between tropical monsoons and extratropical climate variability and extremes' ; Swedish VR ; VINOVVA ; STINT ; BECC ; MERGE ; SNIC through S-CMIP
Funding OrganizationNational Key Research and Development Program by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Belmont Forum ; JPI-Climate, Collaborative Research Action 'INTEGRATE, An integrated data-model study of interactions between tropical monsoons and extratropical climate variability and extremes' ; Swedish VR ; VINOVVA ; STINT ; BECC ; MERGE ; SNIC through S-CMIP
WOS Research AreaPhysical Geography ; Geology
WOS SubjectGeography, Physical ; Geology
WOS IDWOS:000443871700002
PublisherWILEY
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/54270
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorWang, Fang; Chen, Deliang
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Reg Climate Grp, Gothenburg, Sweden
3.Justus Liebig Univ, Dept Geog Climatol Climate Dynam & Climate Change, Giessen, Germany
4.Justus Liebig Univ Giessen, Ctr Int Dev & Environm Res, Giessen, Germany
5.Univ Victoria, Sch Earth & Ocean Sci, Victoria, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wang, Fang,Ge, Quansheng,Chen, Deliang,et al. Global and regional climate responses to national-committed emission reductions under the Paris agreement[J]. GEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A-PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY,2018,100(3):240-253.
APA Wang, Fang,Ge, Quansheng,Chen, Deliang,Luterbacher, Juerg,Tokarska, Katarzyna B.,&Hao, Zhixin.(2018).Global and regional climate responses to national-committed emission reductions under the Paris agreement.GEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A-PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY,100(3),240-253.
MLA Wang, Fang,et al."Global and regional climate responses to national-committed emission reductions under the Paris agreement".GEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A-PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY 100.3(2018):240-253.
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