KMS Institute Of Geographic Sciences And Natural Resources Research,CAS
| Global and regional climate responses to national-committed emission reductions under the Paris agreement | |
Wang, Fang1 ; Ge, Quansheng1; Chen, Deliang2; Luterbacher, Juerg3,4; Tokarska, Katarzyna B.5; Hao, Zhixin1
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| 2018 | |
| Source Publication | GEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A-PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY
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| ISSN | 0435-3676 |
| Volume | 100Issue:3Pages:240-253 |
| Corresponding Author | Wang, Fang(wangf@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Chen, Deliang(deliang@gvc.gu.se) |
| Abstract | To stabilize global mean temperature change within the range of 1.5-2.0 degrees C in accordance with the Paris Agreement, countries worldwide submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions with their proposed emission reductions. However, it remains unclear what the resulting climate change in terms of temperature and precipitation would be in response to the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution emission efforts. This study quantifies the global and regional temperature and precipitation changes in response to the updated Intended Nationally Determined Contribution scenarios, using simulations of 14 Fifth Coupled Climate Model Intercomparison Project models. Our results show that Intended Nationally Determined Contribution emissions would lead to a global mean warming of 1.4 degrees C (1.3-1.7 degrees C) in 2030 and 3.2 degrees C (2.6-4.3 degrees C) in 2100, above the preindustrial level (the 1850-1900 average). Spatially, the Arctic is projected to have the largest warming, 2.5 and 3 times the global average for 2030 and 2100, respectively, with strongest positive trends at 70-85 degrees N over Asia, Europe and North America (6.5-9.0 degrees C). The excessive warming under Intended Nationally Determined Contribution scenarios is substantially above the 1.5 degrees C or 2.0 degrees C long-term stabilization level. Global mean precipitation is projected to be similar to preindustrial levels in 2030, and an increase of 6% (4-9%) by 2100 compared with the preindustrial level. Regional precipitation changes will be heterogeneous, with significant increases over the equatorial Pacific (about +120%) and strong decreases over the Mediterranean, North Africa and Central America (-15% - -30%). These results clearly show that it is necessary to adjust and strengthen national mitigation efforts on current Intended Nationally Determined Contributions to meet the long-term temperature target. |
| Keyword | Greenhouse gas emissions Intended Nationally Determined Contributions temperature precipitation regional climate change |
| DOI | 10.1080/04353676.2018.1488538 |
| WOS Keyword | 2 DEGREES-C ; CARBON-CYCLE MODELS ; ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN ; SIMPLER MODEL ; SCENARIOS ; TARGETS ; CMIP5 |
| Indexed By | SCI |
| Language | 英语 |
| Funding Project | National Key Research and Development Program by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China[2016YFA0602704] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41771050] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[91537210] ; Belmont Forum ; JPI-Climate, Collaborative Research Action 'INTEGRATE, An integrated data-model study of interactions between tropical monsoons and extratropical climate variability and extremes' ; Swedish VR ; VINOVVA ; STINT ; BECC ; MERGE ; SNIC through S-CMIP |
| Funding Organization | National Key Research and Development Program by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Belmont Forum ; JPI-Climate, Collaborative Research Action 'INTEGRATE, An integrated data-model study of interactions between tropical monsoons and extratropical climate variability and extremes' ; Swedish VR ; VINOVVA ; STINT ; BECC ; MERGE ; SNIC through S-CMIP |
| WOS Research Area | Physical Geography ; Geology |
| WOS Subject | Geography, Physical ; Geology |
| WOS ID | WOS:000443871700002 |
| Publisher | WILEY |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/54270 |
| Collection | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| Corresponding Author | Wang, Fang; Chen, Deliang |
| Affiliation | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Reg Climate Grp, Gothenburg, Sweden 3.Justus Liebig Univ, Dept Geog Climatol Climate Dynam & Climate Change, Giessen, Germany 4.Justus Liebig Univ Giessen, Ctr Int Dev & Environm Res, Giessen, Germany 5.Univ Victoria, Sch Earth & Ocean Sci, Victoria, BC, Canada |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Wang, Fang,Ge, Quansheng,Chen, Deliang,et al. Global and regional climate responses to national-committed emission reductions under the Paris agreement[J]. GEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A-PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY,2018,100(3):240-253. |
| APA | Wang, Fang,Ge, Quansheng,Chen, Deliang,Luterbacher, Juerg,Tokarska, Katarzyna B.,&Hao, Zhixin.(2018).Global and regional climate responses to national-committed emission reductions under the Paris agreement.GEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A-PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY,100(3),240-253. |
| MLA | Wang, Fang,et al."Global and regional climate responses to national-committed emission reductions under the Paris agreement".GEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A-PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY 100.3(2018):240-253. |
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