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Response of crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency for wheat-maize cropping system to future climate change in northern China
Liang, Shuo1,2; Li, Yuefen1; Zhang, Xubo2; Sun, Zhigang2,3; Sun, Nan4; Duan, Yinghua4; Xu, Minggang4; Wu, Lianhai5
2018-11-15
Source PublicationAGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
ISSN0168-1923
Volume262Pages:310-321
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Xubo(zhangxb@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Sun, Nan(sunnan@caas.cn)
AbstractClimate change and excessive fertilization will threaten the crops yields and nitrogen utilization in coming decades. The aim of this study is to quantify the response of crop yields and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) to different fertilization strategies and climate change scenarios in the northern China by 2100 using the process-based SPACSYS model. The model was calibrated and validated with the data from four long-term experiments with winter wheat (Triticum Aestiviurn L.) and summer maize (Zea mays L.) rotation in the northern China. Five fertilizer treatments based on the long-term experiments were chosen: non-fertilizer (CK), a combination of mineral nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK), NPK plus manure (NPKM), a high application rate of NPKM (hNPKM) and NPK plus maize straw (NPKS). The model simulations and projections were performed under four different climate change scenarios including baseline, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Validation demonstrated that SPACSYS can adequately simulate crop yields, N uptake and annual NUE for the wheat-maize rotation. Without considering the impact of cultivar change, maize yield would increase by an average of 8.5% and wheat yield would decrease by 3.8%, and the annual NUE would decrease by an average of 15% for all fertilization treatments under RCP climate scenarios compared with the baseline. This might be the interactive effects among elevated CO2 concentration, more concentrated and intensive rainfall events, and warming temperature. For each climate scenario, manure amendment could alleviate the negative influences of future climate change on crop growth and nitrogen utilization, given that manure applied treatments had higher soil organic matter and persistent supply of nutrients, which resulted in a more stable crop yield and N removal by wheat and maize than other treatments. In addition, the highest and most stable annual NUE (38.70-52.78%), crop yields and N removal were found in hNPKM treatment until 2100. The results could provide a reference for nitrogen fertilization in study regions to improve crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency and minimize environmental risks in the future.
KeywordClimate change Yield Nitrogen use efficiency SPACSYS model Double cropping
DOI10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.07.019
WOS KeywordELEVATED CO2 CONCENTRATION ; GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS ; LONG-TERM EXPERIMENTS ; WINTER-WHEAT ; FOOD-PRODUCTION ; SOIL FERTILITY ; MODEL APPROACH ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; CARBON ; TEMPERATURE
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFD0200301] ; 100 Talents Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31570472] ; BBSRC ISP grant[BBS/E/C/000I0330]
Funding OrganizationNational Key Research and Development Program of China ; 100 Talents Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; BBSRC ISP grant
WOS Research AreaAgriculture ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectAgronomy ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000444659300027
PublisherELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/52906
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Xubo; Sun, Nan
Affiliation1.Jilin Univ, Coll Earth Sci, Changchun 130061, Jilin, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modeling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Resources & Reg Planning, Natl Engn Lab Improving Qual Arable Land, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
5.Rothamsted Res, Sustainable Agr Syst, Okehampton EX20 2SB, Devon, England
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liang, Shuo,Li, Yuefen,Zhang, Xubo,et al. Response of crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency for wheat-maize cropping system to future climate change in northern China[J]. AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,2018,262:310-321.
APA Liang, Shuo.,Li, Yuefen.,Zhang, Xubo.,Sun, Zhigang.,Sun, Nan.,...&Wu, Lianhai.(2018).Response of crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency for wheat-maize cropping system to future climate change in northern China.AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,262,310-321.
MLA Liang, Shuo,et al."Response of crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency for wheat-maize cropping system to future climate change in northern China".AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 262(2018):310-321.
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