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Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests
Hussain, Mubasher1,2,3; Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan2; Ul Mustafa, Muhammad Raza2; Mahmood, Rashid4; Jia, Shaofeng4
2018-10-01
Source PublicationTHEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0177-798X
Volume134Issue:1-2Pages:423-440
Corresponding AuthorHussain, Mubasher(MubasherHussain@sarawakenergy.com.my)
AbstractWe present the climate change impact on the annual and seasonal precipitation over Rajang River Basin (RRB) in Sarawak by employing a set of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on the capability to simulate the historical precipitation, we selected the three most suitable GCMs (i.e. ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, and GFDL-ESM2M) and their mean ensemble (B3MMM) was used to project the future precipitation over the RRB. Historical (1976-2005) and future (2011-2100) precipitation ensembles of B3MMM were used to perturb the stochastically generated future precipitation over 25 rainfall stations in the river basin. The B3MMM exhibited a significant increase in precipitation during 2080s, up to 12 and 8% increase in annual precipitation over upper and lower RRB, respectively, under RCP8.5, and up to 7% increase in annual precipitation under RCP4.5. On the seasonal scale, Mann-Kendal trend test estimated statistically significant positive trend in the future precipitation during all seasons; except September to November when we only noted significant positive trend for the lower RRB under RCP4.5. Overall, at the end of the twenty-first century, an increase in annual precipitation is noteworthy in the whole RRB, with 7 and 10% increase in annual precipitation under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, respectively.
KeywordPrecipitation projection Stochastic weather generator Quantile perturbation CMIP5 Tropical rainforests Rajang River Basin Sarawak Borneo
DOI10.1007/s00704-017-2284-5
WOS KeywordSTOCHASTIC WEATHER GENERATORS ; SUMMER MONSOON VARIABILITY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE SCENARIOS ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; TREND ANALYSIS ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; LOESS PLATEAU ; LOW-FREQUENCY ; LARS-WG ; TEMPERATURE
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectSarawak Energy Berhad, Malaysia
Funding OrganizationSarawak Energy Berhad, Malaysia
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000446552300029
PublisherSPRINGER WIEN
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/52794
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorHussain, Mubasher
Affiliation1.Sarawak Energy Ballad, Hydro Dept, Kuching 93050, Sarawak, Malaysia
2.Univ Teknol Petronas, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seri Iskandar 32610, Perak, Malaysia
3.Bintech Ltd, Folkestone CT20 2PT, Kent, England
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Hussain, Mubasher,Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan,Ul Mustafa, Muhammad Raza,et al. Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests[J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,2018,134(1-2):423-440.
APA Hussain, Mubasher,Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan,Ul Mustafa, Muhammad Raza,Mahmood, Rashid,&Jia, Shaofeng.(2018).Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,134(1-2),423-440.
MLA Hussain, Mubasher,et al."Evaluation of CMIP5 models for projection of future precipitation change in Bornean tropical rainforests".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 134.1-2(2018):423-440.
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