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Changes in production potentials of rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin of China under climate change: A multi-model ensemble approach
Tian Zhan1,2,3; Ji Yinghao1,2; Sun Laixiang4,5; Xu Xinliang7; Fan Dongli1; Zhong Honglin4; Liang Zhuoran6; Ficsher, Gunther5
2018-11-01
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES
ISSN1009-637X
Volume28Issue:11Pages:1700-1714
Corresponding AuthorXu Xinliang(xuxl@lreis.ac.cn) ; Fan Dongli(fandl@sit.edu.cn)
AbstractRapeseed is one of the major oil crops in China and it is very sensitive to climate change. The Yangtze River Basin is the main rapeseed production area in China. Therefore, a better understanding of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production in the basin is of both scientific and practical importance to Chinese oil industry and food security. In this study, based on climate data from 5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with 4 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in 2011-2040 (2020s), 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s), we assessed the changes in rapeseed production potential between the baseline climatology of 1981-2010 and the future climatology of the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. The key modelling tool - the AEZ model - was updated and validated based on the observation records of 10 representative sites in the basin. Our simulations revealed that: (1) the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production increases with time; (2) in the middle of this century (2050s), total rapeseed production would increase significantly; (3) the average production potential increase in the 2050s for the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin is 0.939, 1.639 and 0.339 million tons respectively; (4) areas showing most significant increases in production include southern Shaanxi, central and eastern Hubei, northern Hunan, central Anhui and eastern Jiangsu.
Keywordclimate change rapeseed production AEZ Yangtze River Basin
DOI10.1007/s11442-018-1538-1
WOS KeywordRICE PRODUCTION ; YIELD ; SCALE ; GENERATION ; ADAPTATION ; PATTERNS ; CMIP5
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41671113] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51761135024] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41601049] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41475040] ; China's National Science & Technology Pillar Program[2016YFC0502702]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; China's National Science & Technology Pillar Program
WOS Research AreaPhysical Geography
WOS SubjectGeography, Physical
WOS IDWOS:000446383000011
PublisherSCIENCE PRESS
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/52708
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorXu Xinliang; Fan Dongli
Affiliation1.Shanghai Inst Technol, Shanghai 200030, Peoples R China
2.Shanghai Meteorol Bur, Shanghai Climate Ctr, Shanghai 200030, Peoples R China
3.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, Peoples R China
4.Univ Maryland, Dept Geog Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA
5.IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
6.Hangzhou Meteorol Bur, Hangzhou 310051, Zhejiang, Peoples R China
7.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100039, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Tian Zhan,Ji Yinghao,Sun Laixiang,et al. Changes in production potentials of rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin of China under climate change: A multi-model ensemble approach[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,2018,28(11):1700-1714.
APA Tian Zhan.,Ji Yinghao.,Sun Laixiang.,Xu Xinliang.,Fan Dongli.,...&Ficsher, Gunther.(2018).Changes in production potentials of rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin of China under climate change: A multi-model ensemble approach.JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,28(11),1700-1714.
MLA Tian Zhan,et al."Changes in production potentials of rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin of China under climate change: A multi-model ensemble approach".JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES 28.11(2018):1700-1714.
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