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Nonstationary statistical approach for designing LNWLs in inland waterways: a case study in the downstream of the Lancang River
Zhao, Jiangyan1; Xie, Ping1,2; Zhang, Mingyang3,4; Sang, Yan-Fang5; Chen, Jie1; Wu, Ziyi1
2018-11-01
Source PublicationSTOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
ISSN1436-3240
Volume32Issue:11Pages:3273-3286
Corresponding AuthorXie, Ping(pxie@whu.edu.cn) ; Sang, Yan-Fang(sangyf@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractConventional methods to design the lowest navigable water level (LNWL) in inland waterways are usually based on stationary time series. However, these methods are not applicable when nonstationarity is encountered, and new methods should be developed for designing the LNWL under nonstationary conditions. Accordingly, this article proposes an approach to design the LNWL in nonstationary conditions, with a case study at the Yunjinghong station in the Lancang River basin in Southwest China. Both deterministic (trends, jumps and periodicities) and stochastic components in the hydrological time series are considered and distinguished, and the rank version of the von Neumann's ratio (RVN) test is used to detect the stationarity of observed data and its residue after the deterministic components are removed. The stationary water level series under different environments are then generated by adding the corresponding deterministic component to the stationary stochastic component. The LNWL at the Yunjinghong station was estimated by this method using the synthetic duration curve. The results showed that the annual water level series at the Yunjinghong station presented a significant jump in 2004 with an average magnitude decline of -0.63m afterwards. Furthermore, the difference of the LNWL at certain guaranteed rate (90%, 95% and 98%) was nearly -0.63m between the current and past environments, while the estimated LNWL under the current environment had a difference of -0.60m depending on nonstationarity impacts. Overall, the results clearly confirmed the influence of hydrological nonstationarity on the estimation of LNWL, which should be carefully considered and evaluated for channel planning and design, as well as for navigation risk assessment.
KeywordLowest navigable water level Inland waterways Synthetic duration curve Hydrological nonstationarity Lancang River
DOI10.1007/s00477-018-1606-1
WOS KeywordMEKONG RIVER ; FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MANAGEMENT ; DISCHARGE ; BASIN ; STATIONARITY ; IMPACT ; MODEL ; DEAD
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[51579181] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[91547205] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[91647110] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51779176] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS[2017074]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
WOS SubjectEngineering, Environmental ; Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Statistics & Probability ; Water Resources
WOS IDWOS:000447873600018
PublisherSPRINGER
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/52577
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorXie, Ping; Sang, Yan-Fang
Affiliation1.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China
2.Collaborat Innovat Ctr Terr Sovereignty & Maritim, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China
3.Wuhan Univ Technol, Intelligent Transportat Syst Res Ctr, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China
4.Wuhan Univ Technol, Natl Engn Res Ctr Water Transport Safety, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhao, Jiangyan,Xie, Ping,Zhang, Mingyang,et al. Nonstationary statistical approach for designing LNWLs in inland waterways: a case study in the downstream of the Lancang River[J]. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,2018,32(11):3273-3286.
APA Zhao, Jiangyan,Xie, Ping,Zhang, Mingyang,Sang, Yan-Fang,Chen, Jie,&Wu, Ziyi.(2018).Nonstationary statistical approach for designing LNWLs in inland waterways: a case study in the downstream of the Lancang River.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,32(11),3273-3286.
MLA Zhao, Jiangyan,et al."Nonstationary statistical approach for designing LNWLs in inland waterways: a case study in the downstream of the Lancang River".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 32.11(2018):3273-3286.
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