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Contrasting streamflow regimes induced by melting glaciers across the Tien Shan - Pamir - North Karakoram
Luo, Yi1,2,3; Wang, Xiaolei1,2; Piao, Shilong4,5; Sun, Lin1; Ciais, Philippe6; Zhang, Yiqing2; Ma, Changkun7; Gan, Rong2; He, Chansheng8
2018-11-07
Source PublicationSCIENTIFIC REPORTS
ISSN2045-2322
Volume8Pages:9
Corresponding AuthorLuo, Yi(luoyi@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Piao, Shilong(slpiao@pku.edu.cn)
AbstractThe glacierized Tien Shan - Pamir - Karakoram mountain complex supplies water to about 42 million people. Yet, the knowledge about future glacial runoff in response to future climate is limited. Here, we address this issue using a hydrological model, that includes the three components of glacial runoff: ice melt, snowmelt and the runoff of rainfall over ice. The model is forced by climate projections of the CMIP5 models. We find that the three components exhibit different long-term trajectories, sometimes opposite in sign to the long-term trend in glacier impacts. For the eastern slope basins, streamflow is projected to increase by 28% (ranging from 9 to 44%, from climate model variation (CMV)) by the late 21st century, under the representative concentration pathway, RCP8.5. Ice melt contributes 39% (25 to 65%, CMV) of the total streamflow increase. However, streamflow from the western slopes is projected to decrease by 5% (-24 to 16%, CMV), due to the smaller contribution of ice melt, less precipitation and higher evapotranspiration. Increasing water supply from the eastern slopes suggests more water availability for currently degraded downstream ecosystems in the Xinjiang province of China, while the likely decreasing streamflow in Central Asian rivers on the western slopes indicates new regulations will be needed.
DOI10.1038/s41598-018-34829-2
WOS KeywordCLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; TIANSHAN MOUNTAINS ; FLOOD FREQUENCY ; WATER-RESOURCES ; RUNOFF CHANGES ; MASS BALANCES ; CENTRAL-ASIA ; RIVER-BASIN ; CHINA ; SCALE
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41130641] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences[KZZD-EW-12] ; Ministry of Science and Technology of China[2010DFA92720] ; Ministry of Science and Technology of China[2010CB951002]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Ministry of Science and Technology of China
WOS Research AreaScience & Technology - Other Topics
WOS SubjectMultidisciplinary Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000449367700016
PublisherNATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/52513
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorLuo, Yi; Piao, Shilong
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modeling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, 19A Yuquan Rd, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Earth Sci, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China
5.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, SinoFrench Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
6.CEA CNRS UVSQ, LSCE, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France
7.Northwest A&F Univ, Coll Nat Resources & Environm, 3 Taicheng Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
8.Western Michigan Univ, Dept Geog, 1903 W Michigan,Ave Kalamazoo, Kalamazoo, MI 49008 USA
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Luo, Yi,Wang, Xiaolei,Piao, Shilong,et al. Contrasting streamflow regimes induced by melting glaciers across the Tien Shan - Pamir - North Karakoram[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2018,8:9.
APA Luo, Yi.,Wang, Xiaolei.,Piao, Shilong.,Sun, Lin.,Ciais, Philippe.,...&He, Chansheng.(2018).Contrasting streamflow regimes induced by melting glaciers across the Tien Shan - Pamir - North Karakoram.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,8,9.
MLA Luo, Yi,et al."Contrasting streamflow regimes induced by melting glaciers across the Tien Shan - Pamir - North Karakoram".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 8(2018):9.
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