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Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2 degrees C Stabilization Scenarios
Liu, Wenbin1; Lim, Wee Ho1,2; Sun, Fubao1,3,4,5; Mitchell, Dann6; Wang, Hong1; Chen, Deliang7; Bethke, Ingo8; Shiogama, Hideo9; Fischer, Erich10
2018-09-28
Source PublicationGEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
Volume45Issue:18Pages:9803-9813
Corresponding AuthorSun, Fubao(sunfb@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractBased on the large ensembles of the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts historical, +1.5 and +2 degrees C experiments, we quantify changes in the magnitude of water availability (i.e., precipitation minus actual evapotranspiration; a function of monthly precipitation flux, latent heat flux, and surface air temperature) below normal conditions (less than median, e.g., 20th percentile water availability). We found that, relative to the historical experiment, water availability below normal conditions of the +1.5 and +2 degrees C experiments would decrease in the midlatitudes and the tropics, indicating that hydrological drought is likely to increase in warmer worlds. These cause more (less) people in East Asia, Central Europe, South Asia, and Southeast Asia (West Africa and Alaska/Northwest Canada) to be exposed to water shortage. Stabilizing warming at 1.5 degrees C instead of 2 degrees C would limit population impact in most of the regions, less effective in Alaska/Northwest Canada, Southeast Asia, and Amazon. Globally, this reduced population impact is similar to 117 million people. Plain Language Summary This study emerges from the lack of scientific investigations to inform climate policy about differences between two global warming targets (i.e., 1.5 and 2 degrees C) for the "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 degrees C." We seek to understand the following: How would water availability below normal conditions (the drier end of hydrological extremes) change at these targets? How would they affect the water shortage of human society? Could we limit the impact by stabilizing the global warming at 1.5 degrees C instead of 2 degrees C? To address these questions, we employ the HAPPI (half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts) experiments, explicitly designed to differentiate impacts between these targets. Relative to the historical period, future water availability below normal conditions (less than median, e.g., 20th percentile or lower) would decrease in the midlatitudes and the tropics; the globe and most of the regions would endure water shortages. Relative to the 2 degrees C warming target, stabilizing temperature increase at 1.5 degrees C would constrain adverse impact on people suffering water shortages in most of the regions (particularly Central Europe, East Africa, East Asia, South Asia, and West Africa) but ineffective in Alaska/Northwest Canada, Southeast Asia, and Amazon. A global sum of this reduced risk is similar to 117 million people.
Keyword1.5 degrees C warming water availability global scale shortage population
DOI10.1029/2018GL078789
WOS KeywordCLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACT ; MODEL SIMULATIONS ; DEGREES-C ; DROUGHT ; SCARCITY ; RESOURCES ; RUNOFF ; 1.5-DEGREES-C ; STREAMFLOW ; HYDROLOGY
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602402] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC0401401] ; Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[ZDRW-ZS-2017-3-1] ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program ; CAS President's International Fellowship Initiative[2017PC0068] ; CAS[XDA20060401] ; Swedish VR ; STINT ; Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models ; NERC independent research fellowship[NE/N014057/1] ; Research Council of Norway[261821] ; Sigma2[ns9082k] ; Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy[DE-AC02-05CH11231]
Funding OrganizationNational Key Research and Development Program of China ; Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program ; CAS President's International Fellowship Initiative ; CAS ; Swedish VR ; STINT ; Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models ; NERC independent research fellowship ; Research Council of Norway ; Sigma2 ; Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy
WOS Research AreaGeology
WOS SubjectGeosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS IDWOS:000447761300052
PublisherAMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
Citation statistics
Cited Times:4[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/51505
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorSun, Fubao
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England
3.Hexi Univ, Ecol Inst Qilian Mt, Zhangye, Peoples R China
4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Water Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
6.Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol, Avon, England
7.Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Reg Climate Grp, Gothenburg, Sweden
8.Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Uni Res Climate, Bergen, Norway
9.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Global Environm Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
10.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liu, Wenbin,Lim, Wee Ho,Sun, Fubao,et al. Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2 degrees C Stabilization Scenarios[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(18):9803-9813.
APA Liu, Wenbin.,Lim, Wee Ho.,Sun, Fubao.,Mitchell, Dann.,Wang, Hong.,...&Fischer, Erich.(2018).Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2 degrees C Stabilization Scenarios.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(18),9803-9813.
MLA Liu, Wenbin,et al."Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2 degrees C Stabilization Scenarios".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.18(2018):9803-9813.
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