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Impacts of climate change on agrometeorological indices at winter wheat overwintering stage in northern China during 2021-2050
Hao, Zhixin1,2; Geng, Xiu1,2; Wang, Fang1,2; Zheng, Jingyun1,2
2018-12-01
Source PublicationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
Volume38Issue:15Pages:5576-5588
Corresponding AuthorZheng, Jingyun(zhengjy@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractClimate change has a significant impact on agrometeorological conditions. We analysed the winter wheat overwintering indices for the northern winter wheat production areas of China (NWPA), which include the percentage of extreme low-temperature (daily minimum temperature <=-22 degrees C) years, the first day of the overwintering period (FDO), sowing date (SD) and precipitation before winter (PBW). Then, we compared the differences of the four indices between the forecast period 2021-2050 and the baseline period 1961-1990 under the RCP4.5 scenario, which were based on the 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees grid daily meteorological data output provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The results showed that the occurrence of extreme cold winters decreases the NWPA, which will result in the northern boundary of winter wheat moving north by 1-2 latitudes and in an increase in the potentially safe overwintering areas by 8.5%. The FDO will be delayed in 2021-2050 by an average of 7.7 days. Climate warming will change the meteorological conditions for winter wheat overwintering in the Huang-Huai winter wheat area, especially near the southern boundary of the winter wheat planting area, and the areas and years with no obvious overwintering periods will experience an increase by 50% and 56%, respectively. The SD will be postponed by 8.6-9.0 days. The PBW will decrease as the accumulated temperature increases, especially in the Huang-Huai winter wheat area. In the future, the possible northern boundary for winter wheat planting may move northward, and the northernmost tip may reach 46 degrees N. South of the Huang-Huai region, winter wheat planting may change from a semi-winter to a spring variety. These findings will provide a reference for generating wheat planting and management strategies in China.
Keywordclimate change northern China planting boundary precipitation before winter sowing date the first day of the overwintering period winter wheat overwintering
DOI10.1002/joc.5764
WOS KeywordTRITICUM-AESTIVUM L. ; POTENTIAL IMPACT ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; YIELDS ; PRODUCTIVITY ; TOLERANCE ; COLD
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602704] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA19040101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41671201]
Funding OrganizationNational Key Research and Development Program of China ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000452432200010
PublisherWILEY
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/51428
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorZheng, Jingyun
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Hao, Zhixin,Geng, Xiu,Wang, Fang,et al. Impacts of climate change on agrometeorological indices at winter wheat overwintering stage in northern China during 2021-2050[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(15):5576-5588.
APA Hao, Zhixin,Geng, Xiu,Wang, Fang,&Zheng, Jingyun.(2018).Impacts of climate change on agrometeorological indices at winter wheat overwintering stage in northern China during 2021-2050.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(15),5576-5588.
MLA Hao, Zhixin,et al."Impacts of climate change on agrometeorological indices at winter wheat overwintering stage in northern China during 2021-2050".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.15(2018):5576-5588.
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