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Exploring the effect of human and animal population growth on vector-borne disease transmission with an agent-based model of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis in eastern province, Zambia
Alderton, Simon1,2,3; Macleod, Ewan T.4; Anderson, Neil E.5,6; Machila, Noreen4; Simuunza, Martin7; Welburn, Susan C.4; Atkinson, Peter M.1,2,3,8,9
2018-11-01
Source PublicationPLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES
ISSN1935-2735
Volume12Issue:11Pages:26
Corresponding AuthorAlderton, Simon(s.alderton@lancaster.ac.uk)
AbstractThis paper presents the development of an agent-based model (ABM) to investigate Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT) disease transmission. The ABM model, fitted at a fine spatial scale, was used to explore the impact of a growing host population on the spread of disease along a 75 km transect in the Luangwa Valley, Zambia. The model was used to gain a greater understanding of how increases in human and domestic animal population could impact the contact network between vector and host, the subsequent transmission patterns, and disease incidence outcomes in the region. Modelled incidence rates showed increases in rHAT transmission in both humans and cattle. The primary demographic attribution of infection switched dramatically from young children of both sexes attending school, to adult women performing activities with shorter but more frequent trips, such as water and firewood collection, with men more protected due to the presence of cattle in their routines. The interpretation of model output provides a plausible insight into both population development and disease transmission in the near future in the region and such techniques could aid well-targeted mitigation strategies in the future.
DOI10.1371/journal.pntd.0006905
WOS KeywordSLEEPING-SICKNESS ; EPIDEMIOLOGY ; GLOSSINA
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectEPSRC Doctoral Training Centre grant[EP/G03690X/1] ; Dynamic Drivers of Disease in Africa Consortium, NERC part of the Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) programme[NE/J000701/1] ; Department for International Development (DFID) ; Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) ; Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Funding OrganizationEPSRC Doctoral Training Centre grant ; Dynamic Drivers of Disease in Africa Consortium, NERC part of the Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) programme ; Department for International Development (DFID) ; Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) ; Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
WOS Research AreaInfectious Diseases ; Parasitology ; Tropical Medicine
WOS SubjectInfectious Diseases ; Parasitology ; Tropical Medicine
WOS IDWOS:000452162500033
PublisherPUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/51424
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorAlderton, Simon
Affiliation1.Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster, England
2.Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Med Sch, CHICAS, Lancaster, England
3.Univ Southampton, Fac Social & Human Sci, Geog & Environm, Southampton, Hants, England
4.Coll Med & Vet Med, Biomed Sci, Div Infect & Pathway Med, 1 George Sq, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland
5.Univ Edinburgh, Royal Dick Sch Vet Studies, Roslin, Midlothian, Scotland
6.Univ Edinburgh, Roslin Inst, Roslin, Midlothian, Scotland
7.Univ Zambia, Sch Vet Med, Dept Dis Control, Lusaka, Zambia
8.Queens Univ Belfast, Sch Geog Archaeol & Palaeoecol, Belfast, Antrim, North Ireland
9.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Alderton, Simon,Macleod, Ewan T.,Anderson, Neil E.,et al. Exploring the effect of human and animal population growth on vector-borne disease transmission with an agent-based model of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis in eastern province, Zambia[J]. PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES,2018,12(11):26.
APA Alderton, Simon.,Macleod, Ewan T..,Anderson, Neil E..,Machila, Noreen.,Simuunza, Martin.,...&Atkinson, Peter M..(2018).Exploring the effect of human and animal population growth on vector-borne disease transmission with an agent-based model of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis in eastern province, Zambia.PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES,12(11),26.
MLA Alderton, Simon,et al."Exploring the effect of human and animal population growth on vector-borne disease transmission with an agent-based model of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis in eastern province, Zambia".PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES 12.11(2018):26.
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