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A proportional odds model of human mobility and migration patterns
Ma, Ting1,2,4; Zhu, Rong3; Wang, Jianghao1,2; Zhao, Na1,2; Pei, Tao1,2; Du, Yunyan1,2; Zhou, Chenghu1,2; Chen, Jie1,2
2019
Source PublicationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE
ISSN1365-8816
Volume33Issue:1Pages:81-98
Corresponding AuthorMa, Ting(mting@lreis.ac.cn)
AbstractThe modelling of human mobility and migration patterns has received much attention due to its substantial importance. Despite long-term efforts, we still lack a modelling framework that captures mobility patterns and further obtains a prospective view of movement trends with regards to diverse impacting factors. Here, we propose a proportional odds model of human mobility and migration (POM-HM) that takes a probabilistic approach to model human movements. Our model is based on the migration probability with a log-logistic distribution under the proportional odds assumption. Explanatory variables are introduced into the model by re-parameterizing the probability distribution function. The two resultant functions, namely, the migration strength and cumulative hazard, are used to estimate regional differences among travel fluxes and their tendencies. The performance of the POM-HM in terms of its validity and accuracy is examined and compared with the gravity model and the radiation model. The probability-based modelling framework enables us to investigate regional variations in migrant fluxes consequently further predict potential future patterns. In short, our modelling approach captures the probabilistic nature of human mobility and migration and furthers our understanding of both the spatiotemporal patterns of population movements and the impacts of various driving forces.
KeywordHuman mobility and migration the proportion odds migration probability probability-based modelling
DOI10.1080/13658816.2018.1514608
WOS KeywordPREDICTABILITY ; DYNAMICS
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41771418] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41421001] ; Key Research Program of Frontier Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences[QYZDY-SSW-DQC007] ; National Science and Technology Key Project[2016YFB0502301] ; National Key Basic Research Program of China[2015CB954101]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; Key Research Program of Frontier Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Science and Technology Key Project ; National Key Basic Research Program of China
WOS Research AreaComputer Science ; Geography ; Physical Geography ; Information Science & Library Science
WOS SubjectComputer Science, Information Systems ; Geography ; Geography, Physical ; Information Science & Library Science
WOS IDWOS:000452083200004
PublisherTAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/51400
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorMa, Ting
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Res, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Ma, Ting,Zhu, Rong,Wang, Jianghao,et al. A proportional odds model of human mobility and migration patterns[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE,2019,33(1):81-98.
APA Ma, Ting.,Zhu, Rong.,Wang, Jianghao.,Zhao, Na.,Pei, Tao.,...&Chen, Jie.(2019).A proportional odds model of human mobility and migration patterns.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE,33(1),81-98.
MLA Ma, Ting,et al."A proportional odds model of human mobility and migration patterns".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE 33.1(2019):81-98.
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