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Integrating Dynamic Material Flow Analysis and Computable General Equilibrium Models for Both Mass and Monetary Balances in Prospective Modeling: A Case for the Chinese Building Sector
Cao, Zhi1; Liu, Gang1; Zhong, Shuai2; Dai, Hancheng3; Pauliuk, Stefan4
2019
Source PublicationENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
ISSN0013-936X
Volume53Issue:1Pages:224-233
Corresponding AuthorLiu, Gang(gli@kbm.sdu.dk)
AbstractIntegrated Assessment Models based on Computable General Equilibrium (IAM/CGE) and dynamic Material Flow Analysis (dynamic MFA) are two most widely used prospective model families to assess large-scale and long-term socioeconomic metabolism (SEM) and inform sustainable SEM transition. The latter approach could complement the former by a more explicit understanding of service provision, in-use stocks, and material cycles in a mass balanced framework. In this paper, we demonstrated this by integrating the dynamic MFA and CGE model approaches for the Chinese building sector from 2012 to 2030. Our results revealed the impacts of building stock dynamics on sectoral and economy wide CO, emissions: lower service saturation levels and later saturation time of building stock development could free up investment on buildings and accumulatively save up to 25.4 Gt in embodied CO2 emissions of the building construction sector, representing a 2.7-fold of 2012 countrywide CO2 emissions. However, the save-ups are partly compensated by an increase of embodied CO2 emissions in the other sectors due to economy-wide rebound effect (ca. 18.8 Gt or about 74%). The integrated model we developed could help ensure both mass and monetary balances, explore rebound effects in prospective modeling, and thus better understand the economy-wide consequences of infrastructure development.
DOI10.1021/acs.est.8b03633
WOS KeywordIN-USE STOCKS ; INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY ; ALUMINUM ; CONSUMPTION ; EMISSIONS ; ECONOMY ; FUTURE ; METABOLISM ; EVOLUTION ; PRODUCTS
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectDanish Council for Independent Research (CityWeight)[6111-00555B] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41728002] ; Light-house ODEx funding of University of Southern Denmark (Building Passport)[95-443-64283]
Funding OrganizationDanish Council for Independent Research (CityWeight) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Light-house ODEx funding of University of Southern Denmark (Building Passport)
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectEngineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000455076600024
PublisherAMER CHEMICAL SOC
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/51266
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorLiu, Gang
Affiliation1.Univ Southern Denmark, Dept Chem Engn Biotechnol & Environm Technol, SDU Life Cycle Engn, DK-5230 Odense M, Denmark
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.Peking Univ, Coll Environm Sci & Engn, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
4.Univ Freiburg, Fac Environm & Nat Resources, Ind Ecol Grp, Tennenbacher Str 4, D-79106 Freiburg, Germany
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Cao, Zhi,Liu, Gang,Zhong, Shuai,et al. Integrating Dynamic Material Flow Analysis and Computable General Equilibrium Models for Both Mass and Monetary Balances in Prospective Modeling: A Case for the Chinese Building Sector[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY,2019,53(1):224-233.
APA Cao, Zhi,Liu, Gang,Zhong, Shuai,Dai, Hancheng,&Pauliuk, Stefan.(2019).Integrating Dynamic Material Flow Analysis and Computable General Equilibrium Models for Both Mass and Monetary Balances in Prospective Modeling: A Case for the Chinese Building Sector.ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY,53(1),224-233.
MLA Cao, Zhi,et al."Integrating Dynamic Material Flow Analysis and Computable General Equilibrium Models for Both Mass and Monetary Balances in Prospective Modeling: A Case for the Chinese Building Sector".ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 53.1(2019):224-233.
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