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Risk factors spatial-temporal detection for dengue fever in Guangzhou
Kong, Lingcai1,2; Xu, Chengdong2; Mu, Pengfei3; Li, Jialiang3; Qiu, Senyue3; Wu, Haixia4
2019
Source PublicationEPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
ISSN0950-2688
Volume147Pages:9
Corresponding AuthorKong, Lingcai(konglc@lreis.ac.cn)
AbstractDengue fever (DF) has been a growing public-health concern in China since its emergence in Guangdong Province in 1978. Of all the regions that have experienced dengue outbreaks in mainland China, the city of Guangzhou is the most affected. This study aims to investigate the potential risk factors for dengue virus (DENV) transmission in Guangzhou, China, from 2006 to 2014. The impact of risk factors on DENV transmission was qualified by the q-values calculated using a novel spatial-temporal method, the GeoDetector model. Both climatic and socioeconomic factors were considered. The impacts on DF incidence of each single factor and the interaction of two factors were analysed. The results show that the number of days with rainfall of the month before last has the highest determinant power, with a q-value of 0.898 (P < 0.01); the q-values of the other factors related to temperature and precipitation were around 0.38-0.50. Integrating a Pearson correlation analysis, nonlinear associations were found between the DF incidence in Guangzhou and the climatic factors considered. The coupled impact of the different variables considered was enhanced compared with their individual effects. In addition, an increased number of tourists in the city were associated with a high incidence of DF. This study demonstrates that the number of rain days in a month has great influence on the DF incidence of the month after next; the temperature and precipitation have nonlinear impacts on the DF incidence in Guangzhou; both the domestic and overseas tourists coming to the city increase the risk of DENV transmission. These findings are useful in the risk assessment of DENV transmission, to predict DF outbreaks and to implement preventive DF reduction strategies.
KeywordDengue fever determinant power GeoDetector risk factors
DOI10.1017/S0950268818002820
WOS KeywordMETEOROLOGICAL FACTORS ; AEDES-ALBOPICTUS ; CHINA ; TEMPERATURE ; TRANSMISSION ; EPIDEMIC ; OUTBREAK ; CLIMATE ; DISEASE ; VECTOR
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectFundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[9161017003] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[9161018003] ; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, the Undergraduate Innovative Test Program[201710079087]
Funding OrganizationFundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, the Undergraduate Innovative Test Program
WOS Research AreaPublic, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Infectious Diseases
WOS SubjectPublic, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Infectious Diseases
WOS IDWOS:000455339100031
PublisherCAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/50624
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorKong, Lingcai
Affiliation1.North China Elect Power Univ, Dept Math & Phys, Baoding, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.North China Elect Power Univ, Elect & Elect Engn Sch, Baoding, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Diag & Treatment Infect Di, Natl Inst Communicable Dis Control & Prevent, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Kong, Lingcai,Xu, Chengdong,Mu, Pengfei,et al. Risk factors spatial-temporal detection for dengue fever in Guangzhou[J]. EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION,2019,147:9.
APA Kong, Lingcai,Xu, Chengdong,Mu, Pengfei,Li, Jialiang,Qiu, Senyue,&Wu, Haixia.(2019).Risk factors spatial-temporal detection for dengue fever in Guangzhou.EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION,147,9.
MLA Kong, Lingcai,et al."Risk factors spatial-temporal detection for dengue fever in Guangzhou".EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION 147(2019):9.
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