IGSNRR OpenIR
Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China
Liu, Tao1; Ren, Zhoupeng2; Zhang, Yonghui3; Feng, Baixiang1; Lin, Hualiang4; Xiao, Jianpeng1; Zeng, Weilin1; Li, Xing1; Li, Zhihao1; Rutherford, Shannon5; Xu, Yanjun3; Lin, Shao6; Nasca, Philip C.6; Du, Yaodong7; Wang, Jinfeng2; Huang, Cunrui4; Jia, Peng8,9; Ma, Wenjun1
2019-02-01
Source PublicationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
ISSN1660-4601
Volume16Issue:3Pages:17
Corresponding AuthorMa, Wenjun(mawj@gdiph.org.cn)
Abstract(1) Background: Although the health effects of future climate change have been examined in previous studies, few have considered additive impacts of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation. We aimed to quantify the future heat-related years of life lost (YLLs) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs), and further to examine relative contributions of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation on these projections. (2) Methods: We used downscaled and bias-corrected projections of daily temperature from 27 GCMs under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios to quantify the potential annual heat-related YLLs in Guangzhou, China in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, compared to those in the 1980s as a baseline. We also explored the modification effects of a range of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation scenarios on the heat-related YLLs. (3) Results: Global warming, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario, would lead to a substantial increase in the heat-related YLLs in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for the majority of the GCMs. For the total population, the annual heat-related YLLs under the RCP8.5 in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were 2.2, 7.0, and 11.4 thousand, respectively. The heat effects would be significantly exacerbated by rapid population expansion and ageing. However, substantial heat-related YLLs could be counteracted by the increased adaptation (75% for the total population and 20% for the elderly). (4) Conclusions: The rapid population expansion and ageing coinciding with climate change may present an important health challenge in China, which, however, could be partially counteracted by the increased adaptation of individuals.
Keywordclimate change years of life lost population expansion ageing adaptation population health
DOI10.3390/ijerph16030376
WOS KeywordTEMPERATURE-RELATED MORTALITY ; AMBIENT-TEMPERATURE ; TIME-SERIES ; PROJECTIONS ; IMPACTS ; DEATHS ; FRANCE ; CITIES ; WAVES ; COLD
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Key Research and Development Program of China[2018YFA0606200] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2018YFA0606202] ; Guangzhou Science and Technology Project[201704020194] ; Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province[S2013010014670] ; Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission[201616] ; Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research[CRRP2016-10MY-Huang] ; National Science and Technology Major Program[2012CB955503]
Funding OrganizationNational Key Research and Development Program of China ; Guangzhou Science and Technology Project ; Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province ; Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission ; Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research ; National Science and Technology Major Program
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS IDWOS:000459113600082
PublisherMDPI
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/49396
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorMa, Wenjun
Affiliation1.Guangdong Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Guangdong Prov Inst Publ Hlth, Guangzhou 511430, Guangdong, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.Guangdong Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Guangzhou 511430, Guangdong, Peoples R China
4.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Guangzhou 510080, Guangdong, Peoples R China
5.Griffith Univ, Sch Med, Brisbane, Qld 4111, Australia
6.SUNY Albany, Dept Environm Hlth Sci, Sch Publ Hlth, One Univ Pl, Rensselaer, NY 12148 USA
7.Guangdong Prov Climate Ctr, Guangzhou 510080, Guangdong, Peoples R China
8.Univ Twente, Dept Earth Observat Sci, Fac Geoinformat Sci & Earth Observat ITC, NL-7500 Enschede, Netherlands
9.Int Initiat Spatial Lifecourse Epidemiol ISLE, NL-7500 Enschede, Netherlands
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liu, Tao,Ren, Zhoupeng,Zhang, Yonghui,et al. Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,2019,16(3):17.
APA Liu, Tao.,Ren, Zhoupeng.,Zhang, Yonghui.,Feng, Baixiang.,Lin, Hualiang.,...&Ma, Wenjun.(2019).Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,16(3),17.
MLA Liu, Tao,et al."Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 16.3(2019):17.
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