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Trade-offs in land-use competition and sustainable land development in the North China Plain
Jin, Gui1,2; Chen, Kun1; Wang, Pei2; Guo, Baishu1; Dong, Yin3; Yang, Jun4
2019-04-01
Source PublicationTECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
ISSN0040-1625
Volume141Pages:36-46
Corresponding AuthorJin, Gui(jingui@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Yang, Jun()
AbstractUsing the Computable General Equilibrium of Land Use Change (CGELUC) and Dynamics of Land System (DLS) models, we simulated land-use structures and patterns in Shandong Province in 2025 under three scenarios: baseline, resource consumption, and green development. Compared with the situation in 2015, a slight decrease in grassland, cultivated, and unused land was evident under the green development scenario. Forest land cover remained basically unchanged, whereas water bodies and construction land increased slightly. Under the baseline and resource consumption scenarios, all of the above land-use types showed a decreasing trend apart from construction land, which rapidly increased. Changes in the land-use allocation pattern demonstrated overall consistency and local differences under these scenarios. Among them, most changes in construction and cultivated land occurred around cities, with changes in forests and grassland mainly distributed in the central and northeastern regions. Changes in water bodies and unused land mainly occurred in the northern Yellow River basin and in northeastern coastal areas. Local differences were evident under the green development scenario, with conversion of a small amount of cultivated land in the central region into forests and grassland, and transformation of a small area of cultivated land in the northeastern coastal area into water bodies. The study's findings provide a scientific projection of competitive land-use relations in Shandong Province over the next decade under different land expropriation price and regulation scenarios, which can guide policy formulation and the selection of pathways for achieving sustainable regional development.
KeywordLand-use competition and trade-offs Scenarios Simulation CGELUC model DLS model North China Plain
DOI10.1016/j.techfore.2019.01.004
WOS KeywordUSE/LAND-COVER CHANGE ; LOGISTIC-REGRESSION ; ECOSYSTEM SERVICE ; CELLULAR-AUTOMATA ; URBAN EXPANSION ; DYNAMICS ; IMPACTS ; MODEL ; URBANIZATION ; EFFICIENCY
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41771568] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71533004] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41501593] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602500]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China
WOS Research AreaBusiness & Economics ; Public Administration
WOS SubjectBusiness ; Regional & Urban Planning
WOS IDWOS:000460990700004
PublisherELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/49294
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorJin, Gui; Yang, Jun
Affiliation1.Hubei Univ, Fac Resources & Environm Sci, Wuhan 430062, Hubei, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.China Univ Geosci, Sch Publ Adm, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, Peoples R China
4.Nanjing Univ, Sch Geog & Ocean Sci, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Jin, Gui,Chen, Kun,Wang, Pei,et al. Trade-offs in land-use competition and sustainable land development in the North China Plain[J]. TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE,2019,141:36-46.
APA Jin, Gui,Chen, Kun,Wang, Pei,Guo, Baishu,Dong, Yin,&Yang, Jun.(2019).Trade-offs in land-use competition and sustainable land development in the North China Plain.TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE,141,36-46.
MLA Jin, Gui,et al."Trade-offs in land-use competition and sustainable land development in the North China Plain".TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 141(2019):36-46.
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