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Impacts of future land cover and climate changes on runoff in the mostly afforested river basin in North China
Yang, Wenting1; Long, Di1; Bai, Peng2
2019-03-01
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN0022-1694
Volume570Pages:201-219
Corresponding AuthorLong, Di(dlong@tsinghua.edu.cn)
AbstractThe Luanhe River basin, the mostly afforested river basin in North China, has exhibited significant land use/land cover change (LUCC) under climate change that could jointly affect water availability of the basin in the future. This study examines both impacts of LUCC and climate change on runoff over the upper reaches of the Luanhe River basin. First, the land use in 2020 is predicted based on the Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov). Second, a hydrological model (Soil Water Assessment Tools, SWAT) is set up for the baseline period 1961-1979 and driven primarily by outputs from five general circulation models (GCMs) under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) for the period 2020-2030. Results show that the ensemble mean annual precipitation may increase under four RCPs for the period 2020-2030, with the maximum (470 mm/yr) and minimum (444 mm/yr) for RCP8.5 and RCP6.0, respectively, 1-7% higher than the observed mean annual precipitation (441 mm/yr) during 1961-1979. The relationship between the runoff simulations and the RCPs under the 2020 land use scenario is nonlinear, with the maximum (57 mm/yr) and minimum (50 mm/yr) mean annual runoff depths under the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios, respectively, similar to 58% and similar to 39% higher than the mean annual observed runoff depth (36 mm/yr) for the baseline period. The increase in forestland (similar to 56%) and decrease in agriculture land (similar to -30%) are remarkable for the period 1970-2020, driven primarily by afforestation implemented in the Luanhe River basin. LUCC would lead to a slight decrease in mean annual runoff, and the runoff only increases in summer but decreases in other three seasons. The decrease in surface runoff and groundwater discharge jointly results in the overall decrease in runoff due to LUCC. In general, the climate change impact will dominate runoff change for the study basin, though marked afforestation has taken place and is likely to continue in the future.
KeywordLand use/cover change Climate change Runoff change Markov SWAT Luanhe River basin
DOI10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.055
WOS KeywordASSESSMENT-TOOL SWAT ; CHANGE SCENARIOS ; WATER-RESOURCES ; MARKOV MODEL ; STREAMFLOW ; DYNAMICS ; REGION ; SOIL ; PRECIPITATION ; CALIBRATION
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFC0405801] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51722903] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51579128] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51620105003]
Funding OrganizationNational Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
WOS SubjectEngineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS IDWOS:000460709400017
PublisherELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/49198
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorLong, Di
Affiliation1.Tsinghua Univ, State Key Lab Hydrosci & Engn, Dept Hydraul Engn, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Yang, Wenting,Long, Di,Bai, Peng. Impacts of future land cover and climate changes on runoff in the mostly afforested river basin in North China[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2019,570:201-219.
APA Yang, Wenting,Long, Di,&Bai, Peng.(2019).Impacts of future land cover and climate changes on runoff in the mostly afforested river basin in North China.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,570,201-219.
MLA Yang, Wenting,et al."Impacts of future land cover and climate changes on runoff in the mostly afforested river basin in North China".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 570(2019):201-219.
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