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Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study
Ferrarini, Alessandro1; Alsafran, Mohammed H. S. A.2; Dai, Junhu3; Alatalo, Juha M.2
2019-02-01
Source PublicationCLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
Volume52Issue:3-4Pages:1413-1423
Corresponding AuthorAlatalo, Juha M.(jalatalo@qu.edu.qa)
AbstractEmpirical works to assist in choosing climatically relevant variables in the attempt to predict climate change impacts on plant species are limited. Further uncertainties arise in choice of an appropriate niche model. In this study we devised and tested a sharp methodological framework, based on stringent variable ranking and filtering and flexible model selection, to minimize uncertainty in both niche modelling and successive projection of plant species distributions. We used our approach to develop an accurate, parsimonious model of Silene acaulis (L.) presence/absence on the British Isles and to project its presence/absence under climate change. The approach suggests the importance of (a) defining a reduced set of climate variables, actually relevant to species presence/absence, from an extensive list of climate predictors, and (b) considering climate extremes instead of, or together with, climate averages in projections of plant species presence/absence under future climate scenarios. Our methodological approach reduced the number of relevant climate predictors by 95.23% (from 84 to only 4), while simultaneously achieving high cross-validated accuracy (97.84%) confirming enhanced model performance. Projections produced under different climate scenarios suggest that S. acaulis will likely face climate-driven fast decline in suitable areas on the British Isles, and that upward and northward shifts to occupy new climatically suitable areas are improbable in the future. Our results also imply that conservation measures for S. acaulis based upon assisted colonization are unlikely to succeed on the British Isles due to the absence of climatically suitable habitat, so different conservation actions (seed banks and/or botanical gardens) are needed.
KeywordBritish Isles Climate-driven niche modelling Climate extremes Model selection Parsimonious modelling Silene acaulis Variable ranking Variable selection
DOI10.1007/s00382-018-4200-9
WOS KeywordCUSHION PLANT ; RANGE SHIFTS ; ALPINE ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; RESPONSES ; BIODIVERSITY ; TEMPERATURES ; PREDICTIONS ; SELECTION ; SURFACES
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000460902200007
PublisherSPRINGER
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/49146
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorAlatalo, Juha M.
Affiliation1.Via G Saragat 4, I-43123 Parma, Italy
2.Qatar Univ, Dept Biol & Environm Sci, Coll Arts & Sci, POB 2713, Doha, Qatar
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Ferrarini, Alessandro,Alsafran, Mohammed H. S. A.,Dai, Junhu,et al. Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52(3-4):1413-1423.
APA Ferrarini, Alessandro,Alsafran, Mohammed H. S. A.,Dai, Junhu,&Alatalo, Juha M..(2019).Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52(3-4),1413-1423.
MLA Ferrarini, Alessandro,et al."Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52.3-4(2019):1413-1423.
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