A comparison of forest fire indices for predicting fire risk in contrasting climates in China
Li, XW; Zhao, G; Yu, XB; Yu, Q
2014
Source PublicationNATURAL HAZARDS
ISSN0921-030X
Volume70Issue:2Pages:1339-1356
AbstractThe relationships between fire danger indices and fire risk have been extensively studied in many regions of the world. This work uses partial effect analysis in semiparametric logistic regression models to assess the nonlinear relationships among location, day, altitude, fire danger indices, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and fire ignition from 1996 to 2008 in four different climatic regions in China. The four regions are North China (NR), Northeast China (NE), Southeast China (SE), and Southwest China (SW). The three main results are as follows: First, different fire danger indices are selected as significant variables dependent on the region. The inter-regional difference could be partially explained by difference in local weather and vegetation conditions. Second, spatial location exerts highly significant effects in all four regions. NDVI values are selected as explained variable for NR, NE, and SE on fire ignitions. On a daily scale, altitude influences fire ignition for NR, SE, and SW. Third, the robustness of the probability models used in NE, SE, and SW is better than that in NR on a daily scale. The semiparametric logistic regression model used in this study is useful for assessing the ability of fire danger indices to estimate probabilities of fire ignition on a daily scale. This study encourages further research on assessing the predictive ability of fire danger indices developed at other temporal and spatial scales in China.
SubtypeJournal
KeywordForest fire Fire danger indices Fire risk probability Semiparametric logistic regression
Subject AreaGeology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS Subject ExtendedGeosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS KeywordBOREAL FOREST ; DANGER ; PROBABILITY ; CALIFORNIA ; MOUNTAINS ; PORTUGAL ; REGIMES ; WEATHER ; REGION ; MODELS
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS IDWOS:000331393200020
PublisherSPRINGER
Citation statistics
Cited Times:9[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/44601
Collection生态系统网络观测与模拟院重点实验室_生态网络实验室
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Li, XW,Zhao, G,Yu, XB,et al. A comparison of forest fire indices for predicting fire risk in contrasting climates in China[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS,2014,70(2):1339-1356.
APA Li, XW,Zhao, G,Yu, XB,&Yu, Q.(2014).A comparison of forest fire indices for predicting fire risk in contrasting climates in China.NATURAL HAZARDS,70(2),1339-1356.
MLA Li, XW,et al."A comparison of forest fire indices for predicting fire risk in contrasting climates in China".NATURAL HAZARDS 70.2(2014):1339-1356.
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