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Urbanization, agricultural water use, and regional and national crop production in China
Yan T. T.; Wang, J. X.; Huang, J. K.
Source PublicationEcological Modelling
2015
Volume318
Pages226-235
KeywordUrbanization Agricultural water use Crop areas Crop production Regional and national level in China northern china management footprint economy policy food
AbstractThe overall goal of this paper is to analyze the impacts of the urbanization on regional and national agricultural production through its impact on water use in agriculture in China, Given the historical trend of water use in agriculture and its correlation with urbanization, the change in agricultural water use due to urbanization is estimated. Then the impacts of this change on regional crop production are simulated based on the China Water Simulation Model (CWSM). Within CWSM, a positive mathematical programming (PMP) optimizes water allocation among crops and between irrigated and rainfed areas within a crop in each of ten river basins in China. The results show that water use in China has an obvious increasing trend, particularly in the industrial and domestic sectors, while the share of water use in agricultural sector has been dropping. A 1-percentage-point increase in urbanization can result in a 0.47 percentage-point decline in share of water use. Based on the model simulation, this will lead to the further decrease of irrigated areas and the increase of rainfed areas at both the national and river basin levels, particularly for water intensive crops (such as rice and wheat). Accordingly, average yields and total production will also decrease. A river basin with large production of either rice or wheat (or both) decreases more in irrigated area as urban area expands. Adaptation measures are recommended for both authorities and farmers to ensure food security, such as providing incentive for farmers to adopt water saving technology, implementing appropriate institutional and policy innovations (e.g., water use association, water pricing and water use rights). (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
ISSN0304-3800
DOI10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.12.021
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Document TypeSCI/SSCI论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/43585
Collection历年回溯文献
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GB/T 7714
Yan T. T.,Wang, J. X.,Huang, J. K.. Urbanization, agricultural water use, and regional and national crop production in China. 2015.
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