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Potential impacts of regional climate change on site productivity of Larix olgensis plantations in northeast China
Shen C. C.; Lei, X. D.; Liu, H. Y.; Wang, L.; Liang, W. J.
Source PublicationIforest-Biogeosciences and Forestry
2015
Volume8
Pages642-651
KeywordSite Productivity Climate Change Potential Impacts Larix Olgensis even-aged stands douglas-fir forest management british-columbia soil properties index prediction models canada pine
AbstractClimate change is expected to substantially affect forest site productivity. However, its effects may vary depending on the climate scenario, region and tree species. We chose Larix olgensis in northeast China to investigate the responses of forest site productivity to regional climate change using a generalized additive model (GAM). Based on site index data and climate variables from 335 townships across the Jilin Province, we developed a climate-sensitive forest site index model, which accounted for 72.9% of the variation in the site index at the referred age of 20 (SI20). Our results indicated that climatic and geographic factors significantly affect forest site productivity. The geographic location, mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation and mean temperature differential were found to be statistically significant explanatory variables. We predict that the change of mean SI20 would vary from 0.3 m to -0.8 m (2.2% to -5.9%) by 2050 and from 0.5 m to -1.6 m (3.7% to -11.8%) by 2070 under three BC-RCP scenarios with rising temperature and increasing precipitation. Our study suggests that climate is an important factor affecting forest site productivity. Future climate changes could affect the forest site productivity both positively and negatively for Larix olgensis in northeast China. The relationship between climate and forest site productivity has strong implications for adaptive forest management and needs to be considered in forest management planning under future climate change.
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
ISSN1971-7458
DOI10.3832/ifor1203-007
Citation statistics
Document TypeSCI/SSCI论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/43563
Collection历年回溯文献
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Shen C. C.,Lei, X. D.,Liu, H. Y.,et al. Potential impacts of regional climate change on site productivity of Larix olgensis plantations in northeast China. 2015.
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