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Quantifying future changes in glacier melt and river runoff in the headwaters of the Urumqi River, China
Zhang Y. Q.; Luo, Y.; Sun, L.
Source PublicationEnvironmental Earth Sciences
2016
Volume75
Issue9
KeywordClimate change Glacier melt Runoff GCMs climate-change impacts central-asia tien-shan no. 1 tianshan mountains water-resources northwest china cordillera-blanca eastern tianshan mass-balance
AbstractClimate change is likely to have significant effects on the water cycle in glacierized basins. Here, the glacier-enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate glacio-hydrological processes and to estimate the potential hydrological changes driven by downscaled future climate projections of five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in the headwaters of the Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountains, China. The evaluation indices indicated that the model performed well at simulating streamflow during the calibration and validation. The GCM-predicted mean temperature and precipitation both increase. The periods of 1966-1995, 2016-2045 and 2066-2095 were used as the baseline, the near future, and the far future periods, respectively. The results showed different runoff characteristics under various scenarios in the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 (UG1) sub-basin and Urumqi River Basin (URB) due to distinct melt water contributions. In the UG1 sub-basin, the ice melt and glacier melt are expected to reach peak water in the near future and sharply decline in the far future, and the sub-basin runoff would gradually decrease under all RCPs. In the URB, the ice melt and glacier melt rapidly decrease but the river runoff remains stable under RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5, with a slight decrease under RCP 8.5. The grouped glacier area with small size class shows a rapid retreat rate. It was also found that melt water from three grouped glaciers exhibit different responses to future scenarios.
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
ISSN1866-6280
DOI10.1007/s12665-016-5563-z
Citation statistics
Document TypeSCI/SSCI论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/43413
Collection历年回溯文献
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GB/T 7714
Zhang Y. Q.,Luo, Y.,Sun, L.. Quantifying future changes in glacier melt and river runoff in the headwaters of the Urumqi River, China. 2016.
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