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China's socioeconomic risk from extreme events in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model
Yuan X. C.; Sun, X.; Lall, U.; Mi, Z. F.; He, J.; Wei, Y. M.
Source PublicationClimatic Change
2016
Volume139
Issue2
Pages169-181
Keywordnatural disasters economic-development damage vulnerability adaptation countries exposure losses impact sensitivities
AbstractChina has a large economic and demographic exposure to extreme events that is increasing rapidly due to its fast development, and climate change may further aggravate the situation. This paper investigates China's socioeconomic risk from extreme events under climate change over the next few decades with a focus on sub-national heterogeneity. The empirical relationships between socioeconomic damages and their determinants are identified using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, and are used to estimate future damages as well as associated uncertainty bounds given specified climate and development scenarios. Considering projected changes in exposure, we find that the southwest and central regions and Hainan Island of China are likely to have a larger percentage of population at risk, while most of the southwest and central regions could generally have higher economic losses. Finally, the analysis suggests that increasing income can significantly decrease the number of people affected by extremes.
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
ISSN0165-0009
DOI10.1007/s10584-016-1749-3
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Cited Times:2[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document TypeSCI/SSCI论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/43375
Collection历年回溯文献
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Yuan X. C.,Sun, X.,Lall, U.,et al. China's socioeconomic risk from extreme events in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model. 2016.
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