IGSNRR OpenIR  > 历年回溯文献
European summer temperatures since Roman times
Luterbacher J.; Werner, J. P.; Smerdon, J. E.; Fernandez-Donado, L.; Gonzalez-Rouco, F. J.; Barriopedro, D.; Ljungqvist, F. C.; Buntgen, U.; Zorita, E.; Wagner, S.; Esper, J.; Mccarroll, D.; Toreti, A.; Frank, D.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Barriendos, M.; Bertolin, C.; Bothe, O.; Brazdil, R.; Camuffo, D.; Dobrovolny, P.; Gagen, M.; Garica-Bustamante, E.; Ge, Q.; Gomez-Navarro, J. J.; Guiot, J.; Hao, Z.; Hegerl, G. C.; Holmgren, K.; Klimenko, V. V.; Martin-Chivelet, J.; Pfister, C.; Roberts, N.; Schindler, A.; Schurer, A.; Solomina, O.; Von Gunten, L.; Wahl, E.; Wanner, H.; Wetter, O.; Xoplaki, E.; Yuan, N.; Zanchettin, D.; Zhang, H.; Zerefos, C.
Source PublicationEnvironmental Research Letters
2016
Volume11
Issue2
KeywordCommon Era heat waves paleoclimatology Bayesian hierarchical modelling European summer temperature reconstruction ensemble of climate model simulations Medieval Climate Anomaly reconstructing climate anomalies high-resolution paleoclimatology northern-hemisphere temperature tree-ring chronologies last 1000 years volcanic-eruptions forcing reconstructions bayesian algorithm pmip simulations past millennium
AbstractThe spatial context is criticalwhen assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatiotemporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June-August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951-2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986-2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850-2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
ISSN1748-9326
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001
Citation statistics
Cited Times:100[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document TypeSCI/SSCI论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/43129
Collection历年回溯文献
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Luterbacher J.,Werner, J. P.,Smerdon, J. E.,et al. European summer temperatures since Roman times. 2016.
Files in This Item: Download All
File Name/Size DocType Version Access License
Luterbacher-2016-Eur(2456KB) 开放获取CC BY-NC-SAView Download
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Luterbacher J.]'s Articles
[Werner, J. P.]'s Articles
[Smerdon, J. E.]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[Luterbacher J.]'s Articles
[Werner, J. P.]'s Articles
[Smerdon, J. E.]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[Luterbacher J.]'s Articles
[Werner, J. P.]'s Articles
[Smerdon, J. E.]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
File name: Luterbacher-2016-European summer temp.pdf
Format: Adobe PDF
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.