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Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination
Ren Z. P.; Wang, D. Q.; Ma, A. M.; Hwang, J.; Bennett, A.; Sturrock, H. J. W.; Fan, J. F.; Zhang, W. J.; Yang, D.; Feng, X. Y.; Xia, Z. G.; Zhou, X. N.; Wang, J. F.
Source PublicationScientific Reports
2016
Volume6
Keywordplasmodium-falciparum species distributions anopheles-arabiensis night lights transmission temperature models future projections culicidae
AbstractProjecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
ISSN2045-2322
DOI10.1038/srep20604
Citation statistics
Cited Times:29[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document TypeSCI/SSCI论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/42779
Collection历年回溯文献
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Ren Z. P.,Wang, D. Q.,Ma, A. M.,et al. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination. 2016.
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