IGSNRR OpenIR  > 历年回溯文献
Climate change impacts on meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China
Leng G. Y.; Tang, Q. H.; Rayburg, S.
Source PublicationGlobal and Planetary Change
2015
Volume126
Pages23-34
KeywordClimate Change Impacts Droughts China Water-resources Streamflow Droughts Change Scenarios Rcm Simulation Future Drought Soil-moisture Model Sensitivity Dataset Precipitation
AbstractBias corrected daily climate projections from five global circulation models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 emission scenarios were fed into a calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to project future hydrological changes in China. The standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized runoff index (SRI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSWI) were used to assess the climate change impact on droughts from meteorological, agricultural, and hydrologic perspectives. Changes in drought severity, duration, and frequency suggest that meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts will become more severe, prolonged, and frequent for 2020-2049 relative to 1971-2000, except for parts of northern and northeastern China. The frequency of long-term agricultural droughts (with duration larger than 4 months) will increase more than that of short-term droughts (with duration less than 4 months), while the opposite is projected for meteorological and hydrological droughts. In extreme cases, the most prolonged agricultural droughts increased from 6 to 26 months whereas the most prolonged meteorological and hydrological droughts changed little. The most severe hydrological drought intensity was about 3 times the baseline in general whereas the most severe meteorological and agricultural drought intensities were about 2 times and 1.5 times the baseline respectively. For the prescribed local temperature increments up to 3 degrees C, increase of agricultural drought occurrence is predicted whereas decreases or little changes of meteorological and hydrological drought occurrences are projected for most temperature increments. The largest increase of meteorological and hydrological drought durations and intensities occurred when temperature increased by 1 degrees C whereas agricultural drought duration and intensity tend to increase consistently with temperature increments. Our results emphasize that specific measures should be taken by specific sectors in order to better mitigate future climate change associated with specific warming amounts. It is, however, important to keep in mind that our results may depend on the emission scenario, GCMs, impact model, time periods and drought indicators selected for analysis. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
ISSN0921-8181
DOI10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.01.003
Citation statistics
Document TypeSCI/SSCI论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/38689
Collection历年回溯文献
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Leng G. Y.,Tang, Q. H.,Rayburg, S.. Climate change impacts on meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China. 2015.
Files in This Item: Download All
File Name/Size DocType Version Access License
Leng-2015-Climate ch(2392KB) 开放获取CC BY-NC-SAView Download
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Leng G. Y.]'s Articles
[Tang, Q. H.]'s Articles
[Rayburg, S.]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[Leng G. Y.]'s Articles
[Tang, Q. H.]'s Articles
[Rayburg, S.]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[Leng G. Y.]'s Articles
[Tang, Q. H.]'s Articles
[Rayburg, S.]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
File name: Leng-2015-Climate change impac.pdf
Format: Adobe PDF
This file does not support browsing at this time
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.