IGSNRR OpenIR  > 历年回溯文献
Climate change impacts on meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China
Leng G. Y.; Tang, Q. H.; Rayburg, S.
出处Global and Planetary Change
2015
126
23-34
关键词Climate Change Impacts Droughts China Water-resources Streamflow Droughts Change Scenarios Rcm Simulation Future Drought Soil-moisture Model Sensitivity Dataset Precipitation
英文摘要Bias corrected daily climate projections from five global circulation models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 emission scenarios were fed into a calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to project future hydrological changes in China. The standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized runoff index (SRI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSWI) were used to assess the climate change impact on droughts from meteorological, agricultural, and hydrologic perspectives. Changes in drought severity, duration, and frequency suggest that meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts will become more severe, prolonged, and frequent for 2020-2049 relative to 1971-2000, except for parts of northern and northeastern China. The frequency of long-term agricultural droughts (with duration larger than 4 months) will increase more than that of short-term droughts (with duration less than 4 months), while the opposite is projected for meteorological and hydrological droughts. In extreme cases, the most prolonged agricultural droughts increased from 6 to 26 months whereas the most prolonged meteorological and hydrological droughts changed little. The most severe hydrological drought intensity was about 3 times the baseline in general whereas the most severe meteorological and agricultural drought intensities were about 2 times and 1.5 times the baseline respectively. For the prescribed local temperature increments up to 3 degrees C, increase of agricultural drought occurrence is predicted whereas decreases or little changes of meteorological and hydrological drought occurrences are projected for most temperature increments. The largest increase of meteorological and hydrological drought durations and intensities occurred when temperature increased by 1 degrees C whereas agricultural drought duration and intensity tend to increase consistently with temperature increments. Our results emphasize that specific measures should be taken by specific sectors in order to better mitigate future climate change associated with specific warming amounts. It is, however, important to keep in mind that our results may depend on the emission scenario, GCMs, impact model, time periods and drought indicators selected for analysis. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
收录类别SCI
语种英语
ISSN号0921-8181
DOI标识10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.01.003
引用统计
被引频次:60[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型SCI/SSCI论文
条目标识符http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/38689
专题历年回溯文献
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Leng G. Y.,Tang, Q. H.,Rayburg, S.. Climate change impacts on meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China. 2015.
条目包含的文件 下载所有文件
文件名称/大小 文献类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
Leng-2015-Climate ch(2392KB) 开放获取CC BY-NC-SA浏览 下载
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Leng G. Y.]的文章
[Tang, Q. H.]的文章
[Rayburg, S.]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Leng G. Y.]的文章
[Tang, Q. H.]的文章
[Rayburg, S.]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Leng G. Y.]的文章
[Tang, Q. H.]的文章
[Rayburg, S.]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: Leng-2015-Climate change impac.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
此文件暂不支持浏览
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。