IGSNRR OpenIR  > 历年回溯文献
Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production
Asseng S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rotter, R. P.; Lobell, D. B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B. A.; Ottman, M. J.; Wall, G. W.; White, J. W.; Reynolds, M. P.; Alderman, P. D.; Prasad, P. V. V.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A. J.; De Sanctis, G.; Doltra, J.; Fereres, E.; Garcia-Vile, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L. A.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Jabloun, M.; Jones, C. D.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Koehler, A. K.; Muller, C.; Kumar, S. N.; Nendel, C.; O'leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Rezaei, E. E.; Ruane, A. C.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Stockle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P. J.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wallach, D.; Wolf, I.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y.
Source PublicationNature Climate Change
2015
Volume5
Issue2
Pages143-147
KeywordClimate-change Spring Wheat Dryland Wheat Yield Growth Drought Heat Co2 Agriculture Adaptation
AbstractCrop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production(1). Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature(2). Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degrees C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
ISSN1758-678X
DOI10.1038/nclimate2470
Citation statistics
Cited Times:385[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document TypeSCI/SSCI论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/38545
Collection历年回溯文献
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Asseng S.,Ewert, F.,Martre, P.,et al. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. 2015.
Files in This Item: Download All
File Name/Size DocType Version Access License
Asseng-2015-Rising t(3364KB) 开放获取CC BY-NC-SAView Download
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Asseng S.]'s Articles
[Ewert, F.]'s Articles
[Martre, P.]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[Asseng S.]'s Articles
[Ewert, F.]'s Articles
[Martre, P.]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[Asseng S.]'s Articles
[Ewert, F.]'s Articles
[Martre, P.]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
File name: Asseng-2015-Rising temperatures.pdf
Format: Adobe PDF
This file does not support browsing at this time
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.