Assessing the hydrological impacts of climate change in the headwater catchment of the Tarim River basin, China
Liu Zhaofei; Xu Zongxue; Fu Guobin; Yao Zhijun
KeywordClimate Change Catchments Climate Models Hidden Markov Models Runoff Watersheds
Source PublicationHydrology Research
2013
Volume44Issue:5Pages:834-849
AbstractTwo statistical downscaling models were used to downscale regional climate change scenarios, on the basis of the outputs of three general circulation models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios. Driven by these climate change scenarios, a distributed macro-scale hydrological model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model) was applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological processes in the headwater catchment (HC) of the Tarim River basin, China. The results showed that the HC tends to experience warmer and drier conditions under the combined climate change scenarios. The predictions show a decreasing trend of the runoff in the HC, driven by the combined climate change scenarios. The results predicted an increasing trend for winter runoff however, which was consistent with the forecasts from most previous studies on other locations such as the region of St Lawrence tributaries (Quebec, Canada) and the Willamette River Basin (Oregon, USA). There was an inconsistent intra-annual distribution of the changes in precipitation and runoff in the HC; these inconsistencies may be explained by increasing snowmelt runoff resulting from higher air temperature. It was concluded that uncertainties within different GCM outputs are more significant than emission scenarios in the assessment of the potential impact of climate change. IWA Publishing 2013.
Indexed ByEI
Language英语
Document TypeEI期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/31181
Collection资源利用与环境修复重点实验室_资源地理与国土资源研究室_EI期刊论文
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liu Zhaofei,Xu Zongxue,Fu Guobin,et al. Assessing the hydrological impacts of climate change in the headwater catchment of the Tarim River basin, China. 2013.
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