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A new estimate of the China temperature anomaly series and uncertainty assessment in 1900-2006
Wang, JF; Xu, ChengDong(徐成东); Hu, MG; Li, QX; Yan, ZW; Zhao, P; Jones, P
2014
发表期刊JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
卷号119期号:1页码:1-9
通讯作者Wang, JF
摘要

While global warming during the last century has been well recognized, the magnitude of the climate warming in regions such as China over the past 100years still has some uncertainty due to limited observations during the early years. Several series of temperature anomalies for the 20(th) century in China have been independently developed by different groups. The uncertainty arises mainly from the sparse observations before 1950, where statistics are sensitive to the small and potentially biased sample. In this study, BSHADE-MSN (Biased Sentinel Hospitals Areal Disease Estimation and Means of Stratified Nonhomogeneous Surface), a combination of two novel distinct statistical methods that are applicable with different sample situations to a spatial heterogeneous surface, is applied to estimate annual mean temperature anomalies for China. This method takes into account prior knowledge of geographical spatial autocorrelation and nonhomogeneity of target domains, remedies the biased sample, and maximizes an objective function for the best linear unbiased estimation (BLUE) of the regional mean quantity. For the period 1900-1999, the overall trend estimated by BSHADE-MSN is 0.80 degrees C with a 95% confidential interval between 0.41 degrees C and 1.18 degrees C. This is significantly lower than that calculated by Climate Anomaly Method (CAM) and Block Kriging. The new temperature anomaly series for China exhibits slightly warmer conditions for the period before 1950 than existing studies. All the methods applied so far agree well with each other for the period after 1950, when there are sufficient stations across the country for the estimation of temperature anomaly series. Cross validation shows that the new regional mean temperature anomaly series has smaller estimation error variance and higher accuracy than those based on the other methods assessed in this study.

关键词Temperature Anomaly Series China
收录类别SCI
项目资助者CAS XDA05090102;NSFC 41023010 41271404;MOST 2012CB955503 2012ZX10004-201 2011AA120305
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/28816
专题研究生部
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Wang, JF,Xu, ChengDong,Hu, MG,et al. A new estimate of the China temperature anomaly series and uncertainty assessment in 1900-2006[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2014,119(1):1-9.
APA Wang, JF.,Xu, ChengDong.,Hu, MG.,Li, QX.,Yan, ZW.,...&Jones, P.(2014).A new estimate of the China temperature anomaly series and uncertainty assessment in 1900-2006.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,119(1),1-9.
MLA Wang, JF,et al."A new estimate of the China temperature anomaly series and uncertainty assessment in 1900-2006".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 119.1(2014):1-9.
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