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Assessment of meteorological drought change in the 21st century based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections over mainland China
Song, Zhihong1,2; Xia, Jun1,2,3; She, Dunxian1,2; Li, Lingcheng4; Hu, Chen1,2; Hong, Si1,2
2021-10-01
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN0022-1694
Volume601Pages:14
Corresponding AuthorXia, Jun(xiaj@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; She, Dunxian(shedunxian@whu.edu.cn)
AbstractUnderstanding drought dynamics spatially and temporally is essential for environmental and socio-economic systems, especially under climate change with expected increasing drought. This study aims to update the knowledge about drought spatiotemporal changes over mainland China in the 21st century by utilizing the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets. Precipitation from the nine CMIP6 models is first bias-corrected using a quantile mapping approach and then used to calculate the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for the historical period and future three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). We conduct a clustering algorithm to identify three-dimensional (i.e., latitude, longitude, and time) drought events to access the drought dynamics in both space and time. Results show that the drought events occur more frequently during June to September than the other months for both historical and future periods. The drought frequency is significantly increasing during Sep-Dec in the 21st century (increase by about 8.5%, p-value<0.05). Compared with the historical period, drought centers shift toward south under the future projections, indicating a relatively high drought frequency in south China. Additionally, drought events are projected to have shorter duration, smaller affected area, but higher intensity under all three scenarios. The study contributes to our comprehensive understanding of how future drought characteristics will change due to climate change from the perspective of spatiotemporal dynamics. These results are helpful to drought risk management and provide information for developing drought adaptation strategies.
KeywordMeteorological drought events CMIP6 SPI Mainland China Climate change
DOI10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126643
WOS KeywordBIAS CORRECTION METHODS ; AREA-DURATION ANALYSIS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FUTURE CLIMATE ; HYDROLOGIC IMPACT ; SEVERITY INDEX ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; PRECIPITATION ; TRENDS ; SIMULATIONS
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41890823] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC0402709] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[2042020kf0005]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
WOS SubjectEngineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS IDWOS:000695816300059
PublisherELSEVIER
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/165636
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorXia, Jun; She, Dunxian
Affiliation1.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China
2.Wuhan Univ, Hubei Key Lab Water Syst Sci Sponge City Construc, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 10010, Peoples R China
4.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Atmospher Sci & Global Change Div, Richland, WA 99354 USA
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Song, Zhihong,Xia, Jun,She, Dunxian,et al. Assessment of meteorological drought change in the 21st century based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections over mainland China[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2021,601:14.
APA Song, Zhihong,Xia, Jun,She, Dunxian,Li, Lingcheng,Hu, Chen,&Hong, Si.(2021).Assessment of meteorological drought change in the 21st century based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections over mainland China.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,601,14.
MLA Song, Zhihong,et al."Assessment of meteorological drought change in the 21st century based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections over mainland China".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 601(2021):14.
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