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Climate change detection and attribution in the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna river basins
Sharma, Chetan1; Shukla, Anoop Kumar2; Zhang, Yongqiang2
2021-09-01
Source PublicationGEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS
ISSN1674-9871
Volume12Issue:5Pages:10
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Yongqiang(zhangyq@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractGanga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river basin is the third-largest and one of the most populated river basins in the world. As climate change is affecting most of the hydrometeorological variables across the globe, this study investigated the existence of climate change signal in all four climatological seasons in the GBM river basin and assessed the contribution of anthropogenic activities, i.e., Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emission in the change. Significant decreasing trends in the monsoon and a small increase in pre-monsoon precipitation were observed. Negligible change was detected in post-monsoon and winter season precipitation. CMIP5 GCMs were used for climate change detection, change point estimation, and attribution studies. Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression method was adopted to downscale GCM variables at the local scale. Monte-Carlo simulation approach was used to detect changes in different seasons. The climate change 'signals' were detectable after the year 1980 using Signal to Noise ratio (SNR) method in the majority of central and north-western regions. The change point was detectable only in annual monsoon precipitation at the basin level. Attribution analysis indicated >50% contribution of anthropogenic activities (GHGs) to annual monsoon precipitation changes. So, there is high confidence that monsoon precipitation in GBM has significantly changed due to anthropogenic activities. Different mitigation and adaption measures are also suggested, which may be adopted to manage the growing demand and water availability in the basin. (C) 2021 China University of Geosciences (Beijing) and Peking University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
KeywordGanga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Climate change Support vector machine Signal to noise ratio Anthropogenic activities
DOI10.1016/j.gsf.2021.101186
WOS KeywordEXTREME PRECIPITATION ; HYDROLOGICAL REGIME ; MANN-KENDALL ; TRENDS ; IMPACTS ; VARIABILITY ; RAINFALL ; DETECTABILITY ; TEMPERATURE ; SIMULATIONS
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectSecond Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[2019QZKK0208] ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program
Funding OrganizationSecond Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program ; CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program
WOS Research AreaGeology
WOS SubjectGeosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS IDWOS:000692319300013
PublisherCHINA UNIV GEOSCIENCES, BEIJING
Citation statistics
Cited Times:2[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/165423
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Yongqiang
Affiliation1.JIET, Civil Engn Dept, Jodhpur, Rajasthan, India
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Sharma, Chetan,Shukla, Anoop Kumar,Zhang, Yongqiang. Climate change detection and attribution in the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna river basins[J]. GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS,2021,12(5):10.
APA Sharma, Chetan,Shukla, Anoop Kumar,&Zhang, Yongqiang.(2021).Climate change detection and attribution in the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna river basins.GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS,12(5),10.
MLA Sharma, Chetan,et al."Climate change detection and attribution in the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna river basins".GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS 12.5(2021):10.
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