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Increasing population exposure to global warm-season concurrent dry and hot extremes under different warming levels
Liu, Wenbin1,7; Sun, Fubao1,2,3,7; Feng, Yao1; Li, Chao4; Chen, Jie5; Sang, Yan-Fang1; Zhang, Qiang6
2021-09-01
Source PublicationENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
Volume16Issue:9Pages:10
Corresponding AuthorSun, Fubao(sunfb@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractProjecting future changes in concurrent dry and hot extremes (CDHEs) and the subsequent socio-economic risks (e.g. population exposure) is critical for climate adaptation and water management under different warming targets. However, to date, this aspect remains poorly understood on both global and regional scales. In this study, the changes in future CDHEs and their population exposures under 1.5 degrees C, 2 degrees C, and 3 degrees C warming were quantified using a Standardized Dry and Hot Index calculated based on the newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model outputs and global population datasets. It was found that relative to the baseline period (1986-2005), the severity of CDHEs would increase on the global scale and in most regions, such as in Southern Europe, the Mediterranean, Sahara, West Africa, Central America, Mexico, the Amazon, and the west coast of South America under 1.5 degrees C, 2 degrees C, and 3 degrees C of warming. Stabilizing the warming at 1.5 degrees C would constrain the adverse influence of CDHEs on the population suffering from severe CDHEs in most regions (especially in Central Europe, Southern Europe, the Mediterranean, Eastern North America, West Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia). Globally, the population impacted by severe CDHEs (with a constant 2000 population) would increase by 108 and 266 million (149 and 367 million when constant 2080 population is applied) for 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C increase compared to a 1.5 degrees C increase. These findings provide scientific evidence of the benefit of limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5 degrees C in terms of the socio-economic risks related to CDHEs.
Keywordconcurrent dry and hot extreme population exposure anthropogenic warming CMIP6 global scale
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ac188f
WOS KeywordDEGREES-C ; DROUGHT ; EVENTS ; TEMPERATURE ; PRECIPITATION ; RISK
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[42025104] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42022005] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2019YFA0606903] ; Program for the 'Kezhen-Bingwei' Youth Talents from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences[2020RC004] ; Top-Notch Yong Talents Program of China
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Program for the 'Kezhen-Bingwei' Youth Talents from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Top-Notch Yong Talents Program of China
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000684382400001
PublisherIOP PUBLISHING LTD
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/164568
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorSun, Fubao
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi, Peoples R China
3.Akesu Natl Stn Observat, Res Oasis Agro Ecosyst, Akesu, Peoples R China
4.East China Normal Univ, Key Lab Geog Informat Sci, Minist Educ, Shanghai, Peoples R China
5.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan, Peoples R China
6.Beijing Normal Univ, Key Lab Environm Change & Natl Disaster, Minist Educ, Beijing, Peoples R China
7.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liu, Wenbin,Sun, Fubao,Feng, Yao,et al. Increasing population exposure to global warm-season concurrent dry and hot extremes under different warming levels[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2021,16(9):10.
APA Liu, Wenbin.,Sun, Fubao.,Feng, Yao.,Li, Chao.,Chen, Jie.,...&Zhang, Qiang.(2021).Increasing population exposure to global warm-season concurrent dry and hot extremes under different warming levels.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,16(9),10.
MLA Liu, Wenbin,et al."Increasing population exposure to global warm-season concurrent dry and hot extremes under different warming levels".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 16.9(2021):10.
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