IGSNRR OpenIR
A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback
Zhang, Xuanze1,2; Wang, Ying-Ping3,4; Rayner, Peter J.5; Ciais, Philippe6; Huang, Kun2; Luo, Yiqi7; Piao, Shilong8; Wang, Zhonglei9,10; Xia, Jianyang2; Zhao, Wei11; Zheng, Xiaogu12; Tian, Jing1; Zhang, Yongqiang1
2021-05-19
Source PublicationNATURE COMMUNICATIONS
ISSN2041-1723
Volume12Issue:1Pages:11
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Xuanze(xuanzezhang@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Wang, Ying-Ping(yingping.wang@csiro.au) ; Zhang, Yongqiang(zhangyq@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractThe climate-carbon cycle feedback is one of the most important climate-amplifying feedbacks of the Earth system, and is quantified as a function of carbon-concentration feedback parameter (beta) and carbon-climate feedback parameter (gamma). However, the global climate-amplifying effect from this feedback loop (determined by the gain factor, g) has not been quantified from observations. Here we apply a Fourier analysis-based carbon cycle feedback framework to the reconstructed records from 1850 to 2017 and 1000 to 1850 to estimate beta and gamma. We show that the beta -feedback varies by less than 10% with an average of 3.220.32GtCppm(-1) for 1880-2017, whereas the gamma -feedback increases from -33 +/- 14GtCK(-1) on a decadal scale to -122 +/- 60GtCK(-1) on a centennial scale for 1000-1850. Feedback analysis further reveals that the current amplification effect from the carbon cycle feedback is small (g is 0.01 +/- 0.05), which is much lower than the estimates by the advanced Earth system models (g is 0.09 +/- 0.04 for the historical period and is 0.15 +/- 0.08 for the RCP8.5 scenario), implying that the future allowable CO2 emissions could be 9 +/- 7% more. Therefore, our findings provide new insights about the strength of climate-carbon cycle feedback and about observational constraints on models for projecting future climate. How to curb climate change is uncertain, in part because determination of allowable emissions depends on models with low accuracy. Here the authors re-analyze climate-carbon feedbacks and find that CO2 emissions could be 9 +/- 7% higher and still meet Paris Agreement goals.
DOI10.1038/s41467-021-22392-w
WOS KeywordICE-CORE ; LAND-USE ; DIOXIDE ; OCEAN ; CONSTRAINTS ; SENSITIVITY ; SYSTEM ; UNCERTAINTIES ; AGE
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFA0604603] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602501] ; CAS Pioneer Talent Program ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42001019] ; Shanghai Sailing Program[19YF1413100] ; National Environmental Science Program (climate change and earth system science) ; European Research Council Synergy grant[ERC-2013-SyG-610028 IMBALANCE-P]
Funding OrganizationNational Key Research and Development Program of China ; CAS Pioneer Talent Program ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Shanghai Sailing Program ; National Environmental Science Program (climate change and earth system science) ; European Research Council Synergy grant
WOS Research AreaScience & Technology - Other Topics
WOS SubjectMultidisciplinary Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000658740600006
PublisherNATURE RESEARCH
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/164147
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Xuanze; Wang, Ying-Ping; Zhang, Yongqiang
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.East China Normal Univ, Res Ctr Global Change & Ecol Forecasting, Sch Ecol & Environm Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Terr Biogeochem Grp, South China Bot Garden, Guangzhou, Peoples R China
4.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Private Bag 1, Aspendale, Vic, Australia
5.Univ Melbourne, Climate & Energy Coll, Sch Earth Sci, Parkville, Vic, Australia
6.Univ Paris Saclay, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, LSCE IPSL, CEA,CNRS,UVSQ, Gif Sur Yvette, France
7.No Arizona Univ, Ctr Ecosyst Sci & Soc, Flagstaff, AZ USA
8.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
9.Xiamen Univ, Wang Yanan Inst Studies Econ WISE, Xiamen, Peoples R China
10.Xiamen Univ, Sch Econ, Xiamen, Peoples R China
11.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Meteorol Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
12.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Res East Asia, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhang, Xuanze,Wang, Ying-Ping,Rayner, Peter J.,et al. A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2021,12(1):11.
APA Zhang, Xuanze.,Wang, Ying-Ping.,Rayner, Peter J..,Ciais, Philippe.,Huang, Kun.,...&Zhang, Yongqiang.(2021).A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,12(1),11.
MLA Zhang, Xuanze,et al."A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 12.1(2021):11.
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