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The assessment of current mortality burden and future mortality risk attributable to compound hot extremes in China
He, Guanhao1,2; Xu, Yanjun3; Hou, Zhulin4; Ren, Zhoupeng5; Zhou, Maigeng6; Chen, Yang7; Zhou, Chunliang8; Xiao, Yize9; Yu, Min10; Huang, Biao4; Xu, Xiaojun3; Lin, Lifeng3; Liu, Tao2,12; Xiao, Jianpeng2; Gong, Weiwei10; Hu, Ruying10; Li, Junhua8; Jin, Donghui8; Qin, Mingfang9; Zhao, Qinglong4; Yin, Peng6; Xu, Yiqing8; Hu, Jianxiong2; Zeng, Weilin2; Li, Xing2; Chen, Siqi2; Guo, Lingchuan2; Huang, Cunrui11; Yang, Xingfen1; Ma, Wenjun2,12
2021-07-10
Source PublicationSCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN0048-9697
Volume777Pages:8
Corresponding AuthorMa, Wenjun(mawj@gdiph.org.cn)
AbstractBackground: Global warming may increase the frequency of compound hot extremes (CHEs). This study aimed to assess the current mortality burden and future mortality risk attributable to CHEs in China. Methods: Daily meteorological, air pollution and mortality data were collected in 364 locations from 2006 to 2017 across China. Hot day/night was identified as a day where daily Tmax/Tmin was higher than its 90th percentile in summer. CHE was defined as a hot night with a following hot day. Mortality risk attributed to CHEs in each location was first evaluated using a distributed lag non-linear model. Location-specific association was pooled using a multivariate meta-analysis model, and attributable fraction in the current time and mortality risk from CHEs under different climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5) in the future were assessed. Results: CHEs (RR: 1.23, 95%CI: 1.19 & ndash;1.28) were associated with greater mortality risk, and 0.96% mortality was attributable to CHEs. We found that female, the elderly, and people living in north China were more vulnerable to CHEs. In addition, more intensive (RR: 1.07, 95%CI: 1.06 & ndash;1.08) and consecutive CHEs (RR: 1.09, 95%CI: 1.02 & ndash;1.17) could increase mortality risk. We further observed a seven to nineteen fold deaths attributable to CHEs in 2090s under middle and high climate change scenarios. Conclusion: Our study found that CHEs significantly increased mortality risk and would cause considerable mortality burden in future. These findings suggest that it is necessary to develop clinical and public health policy to alleviate the mortality burden associated with CHEs. (c) 2021 Published by Elsevier B.V.
KeywordCompound hot extremes Mortality risk Global warming China
DOI10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146219
WOS KeywordHEAT WAVES ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPACT ; MODIFIERS ; CLIMATE ; SLEEP
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNationalNatural Science Foundation of China[42075173] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2018YFA0606200] ; Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong, China[2019A1515011880] ; Guangzhou Science and Technology Project[201704020194] ; Guangdong Health Innovation Platform
Funding OrganizationNationalNatural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong, China ; Guangzhou Science and Technology Project ; Guangdong Health Innovation Platform
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000655611600002
PublisherELSEVIER
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/163960
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorMa, Wenjun
Affiliation1.Southern Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Guangzhou 510515, Peoples R China
2.Guangdong Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Guangdong Prov Inst Publ Hlth, Guangzhou 511430, Peoples R China
3.Guangdong Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Guangzhou 511430, Peoples R China
4.Jilin Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changchun 130062, Peoples R China
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
6.Natl Ctr Chron & Noncommunicable Dis Control & Pr, Beijing 100050, Peoples R China
7.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
8.Hunan Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha 410005, Peoples R China
9.Yunnan Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Kunming 650034, Yunnan, Peoples R China
10.Zhejiang Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Hangzhou 310009, Peoples R China
11.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Guangzhou 510080, Peoples R China
12.Jinan Univ, Sch Med, Guangzhou 510632, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
He, Guanhao,Xu, Yanjun,Hou, Zhulin,et al. The assessment of current mortality burden and future mortality risk attributable to compound hot extremes in China[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2021,777:8.
APA He, Guanhao.,Xu, Yanjun.,Hou, Zhulin.,Ren, Zhoupeng.,Zhou, Maigeng.,...&Ma, Wenjun.(2021).The assessment of current mortality burden and future mortality risk attributable to compound hot extremes in China.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,777,8.
MLA He, Guanhao,et al."The assessment of current mortality burden and future mortality risk attributable to compound hot extremes in China".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 777(2021):8.
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