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Greenhouse-gas induced warming amplification over the Arabian Peninsula with implications for Ethiopian rainfall
Cook, Kerry H.1; Vizy, Edward K.1; Liu, Yang2; Liu, Weiran3
2021-07-09
Source PublicationCLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
Pages21
Corresponding AuthorCook, Kerry H.(kc@jsg.utexas.edu)
AbstractObserved surface warming trends over the Arabian Peninsula are a factor of 1.4-2.1 greater than the tropical mean and a factor of 2.3-3.1 greater than the global mean. The primary reason for the amplified warming is the absence of latent cooling over the dry surface, not trends in net longwave heating or solar fluxes. Well-validated regional model simulations with 30-km resolution are used to evaluate the implications of the amplified warming for the regional climate through the twenty-first century. Projected warming rates are similar to the observed ongoing warming, and low-level specific humidity increases by 50% by the end of the century. Precipitation increases occur only in summer in the southwest corner of the peninsula in association with enhanced orographic precipitation. Concurrent evaporation increases ameliorate and can even reverse increases in surface water availability associated with higher rainfall. A strengthening of the low-level negative meridional geopotential height gradient between the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa strengthens the zonal branch of the Somali jet, increasing westerly moisture transport into the Ethiopian Highlands and enhancing summer rainfall in northern Ethiopia by 20% at mid-century and by 35% by the end of the century. Confidence in the results is supported by the similarity of the projections with observed modes of variability and current trends.
DOI10.1007/s00382-021-05858-x
WOS KeywordCLIMATE-CHANGE ; SAUDI-ARABIA ; TEMPERATURE EXTREMES ; AFRICAN MONSOON ; OCEAN DYNAMICS ; VARIABILITY ; MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; TROPICS ; SYSTEM
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNSF[1701520]
Funding OrganizationNSF
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000672120200001
PublisherSPRINGER
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/163884
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorCook, Kerry H.
Affiliation1.Univ Texas Austin, Austin, TX 78712 USA
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.Univ Calif Davis, Davis, CA 95616 USA
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Cook, Kerry H.,Vizy, Edward K.,Liu, Yang,et al. Greenhouse-gas induced warming amplification over the Arabian Peninsula with implications for Ethiopian rainfall[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2021:21.
APA Cook, Kerry H.,Vizy, Edward K.,Liu, Yang,&Liu, Weiran.(2021).Greenhouse-gas induced warming amplification over the Arabian Peninsula with implications for Ethiopian rainfall.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,21.
MLA Cook, Kerry H.,et al."Greenhouse-gas induced warming amplification over the Arabian Peninsula with implications for Ethiopian rainfall".CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2021):21.
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