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Long-term temperature and sea-level rise stabilization before and beyond 2100: Estimating the additional climate mitigation contribution from China's recent 2060 carbon neutrality pledge
Chen, Jiewei1,2; Cui, Huijuan1,2; Xu, Yangyang3; Ge, Quansheng1,2
2021-07-01
Source PublicationENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
Volume16Issue:7Pages:12
Corresponding AuthorCui, Huijuan(cuihj@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Xu, Yangyang(yangyang.xu@tamu.edu)
AbstractAs the largest emitter in the world, China recently pledged to reach a carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060, which could accelerate the progress of mitigating negative climate change effects. In this study, we used the Minimum Complexity Earth Simulator and a semi-empirical statistical model to quantify the global mean temperature and sea-level rise (SLR) response under a suite of emission pathways that are constructed to cover various carbon peak and carbon neutrality years in China. The results show that China will require a carbon emission reduction rate of no less than 6%/year and a growth rate of more than 10%/year for carbon capture capacity to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Carbon peak years and peak emissions contribute significantly to mitigating climate change in the near term, while carbon neutrality years are more influential in the long term. Mitigation due to recent China's pledge alone will contribute a 0.16 degrees C-0.21 degrees C avoided warming at 2100 and also lessen the cumulative warming above 1.5 degrees C level. When accompanied by coordinated international efforts to reach global carbon neutrality before 2070, the 2 degrees C target can be achieved. However, the 1.5 degrees C target requires additional efforts, such as global scale adoption of negative emission technology for CO2, as well as a deep cut in non-CO2 GHG emissions. Collectively, the efforts of adopting negative emission technolgy and curbing all greenhouse gas emissions will reduce global warming by 0.9 degrees C -1.2 degrees C at 2100, and also reduce SLR by 49-59 cm in 2200, compared to a baseline mitigation pathway already aiming at 2 degrees C. Our findings suggest that while China's ambitious carbon-neutral pledge contributes to Paris Agreement's targets, additional major efforts will be needed, such as reaching an earlier and lower CO2 emission peak, developing negative emission technology for CO2, and cutting other non-CO2 GHGs such as N2O, CH4, O-3, and HFCs.
Keywordcarbon neutrality temperature rise sea-level rise Paris agreement
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ac0cac
WOS KeywordZERO EMISSIONS ; AGREEMENT ; COMMITMENT ; WELL
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFA0605303] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA23100401] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41877454] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS[2019053] ; Young Talents in IGSNRR, CAS[2017RC201]
Funding OrganizationNational Key Research and Development Program of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS ; Young Talents in IGSNRR, CAS
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000669096900001
PublisherIOP PUBLISHING LTD
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/163800
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorCui, Huijuan; Xu, Yangyang
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Texas A&M Univ, Coll Geosci, Dept Atmospher Sci, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Chen, Jiewei,Cui, Huijuan,Xu, Yangyang,et al. Long-term temperature and sea-level rise stabilization before and beyond 2100: Estimating the additional climate mitigation contribution from China's recent 2060 carbon neutrality pledge[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2021,16(7):12.
APA Chen, Jiewei,Cui, Huijuan,Xu, Yangyang,&Ge, Quansheng.(2021).Long-term temperature and sea-level rise stabilization before and beyond 2100: Estimating the additional climate mitigation contribution from China's recent 2060 carbon neutrality pledge.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,16(7),12.
MLA Chen, Jiewei,et al."Long-term temperature and sea-level rise stabilization before and beyond 2100: Estimating the additional climate mitigation contribution from China's recent 2060 carbon neutrality pledge".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 16.7(2021):12.
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