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Uncertainty analysis for integrated water system simulations using GLUE with different acceptability thresholds
Zhang, YongYong1; Xia, Jun1; Shao, QuanXi2; Li, Lu3; Yen, Haw4; Zhai, XiaoYan5; Zhao, TongTieGang6; Lin, KaiRong6
2021-06-28
Source PublicationSCIENCE CHINA-TECHNOLOGICAL SCIENCES
ISSN1674-7321
Pages14
Corresponding AuthorZhang, YongYong(zhangyy003@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractIntegrated water quantity and quality simulations have become a popular tool in investigations on global water crisis. For integrated and complex models, conventional uncertainty estimations focus on the uncertainties of individual modules, e.g., module parameters and structures, and do not consider the uncertainties propagated from interconnected modules. Therefore, this study investigated all the uncertainties of integrated water system simulations using the GLUE (i.e., generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) method, including uncertainties associated with individual modules, propagated uncertainties associated with interconnected modules, and their combinations. The changes in both acceptability thresholds of GLUE and the uncertainty estimation results were also investigated for different fixed percentages of total number of iterations (100000). Water quantity and quality variables (i.e., runoff and ammonium nitrogen) were selected for the case study. The results showed that module uncertainty did not affect the runoff simulation performance, but remarkably weakened the water quality responses as the fixed percentage increased during calibration and validation periods. The propagated uncertainty from hydrological modules could not be ignored for water quality simulations, particularly during validation. The combination of module and propagated uncertainties further weakened the water quality simulation performance. The uncertainty intervals became wider owing to an increase in the fixed percentages and introduction of more uncertainty sources. Moreover, the acceptability threshold had a negative nonlinear relationship with the fixed percentage. The fixed percentages (similar to 20.0%-30.0%) were proposed as the acceptability thresholds owing to the satisfactory simulation performance and noticeably reduced uncertainty intervals they produced. This study provided methodological foundations for estimating multiple uncertainty sources of integrated water system models.
Keywordmodule uncertainty propagated uncertainty uncertainty combination integrated water system simulations GLUE
DOI10.1007/s11431-020-1752-0
WOS KeywordHYDROLOGICAL MODEL ; PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY ; SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS ; BAYESIAN-ESTIMATION ; QUALITY ; CALIBRATION ; QUANTITY ; PROPAGATION ; PREDICTION ; MANAGEMENT
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[42071041] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41807171] ; Outstanding Youth Science Foundation of the National Natural Science Foundation of China[51822908]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; Outstanding Youth Science Foundation of the National Natural Science Foundation of China
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Materials Science
WOS SubjectEngineering, Multidisciplinary ; Materials Science, Multidisciplinary
WOS IDWOS:000668401500001
PublisherSCIENCE PRESS
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/163784
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorZhang, YongYong
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.CSIRO Data 61, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia
3.NORCE Norwegian Res Ctr, Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, N-5007 Bergen, Norway
4.Texas A&M Univ, Blackland Res & Extens Ctr, Temple, TX 76502 USA
5.China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
6.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Dept Water Resources & Environm, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhang, YongYong,Xia, Jun,Shao, QuanXi,et al. Uncertainty analysis for integrated water system simulations using GLUE with different acceptability thresholds[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-TECHNOLOGICAL SCIENCES,2021:14.
APA Zhang, YongYong.,Xia, Jun.,Shao, QuanXi.,Li, Lu.,Yen, Haw.,...&Lin, KaiRong.(2021).Uncertainty analysis for integrated water system simulations using GLUE with different acceptability thresholds.SCIENCE CHINA-TECHNOLOGICAL SCIENCES,14.
MLA Zhang, YongYong,et al."Uncertainty analysis for integrated water system simulations using GLUE with different acceptability thresholds".SCIENCE CHINA-TECHNOLOGICAL SCIENCES (2021):14.
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