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How can national ETS affect carbon emissions and abatement costs? Evidence from the dual goals proposed by China's NDCs
Fang, Kai1,2; Zhang, Qifeng1; Song, Junnian3; Yu, Chang4; Zhang, Haoran5; Liu, Haimeng6
2021-08-01
Source PublicationRESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING
ISSN0921-3449
Volume171Pages:13
Corresponding AuthorFang, Kai(fangk@zju.edu.cn)
AbstractChina has committed to goals of reducing its carbon intensity by 60%-65% in 2030 above the 2005 levels and peaking its carbon emissions by latest 2030. While a unified national emission trading scheme (ETS) has been recognized as the crucial instrument to fulfill these ambitious dual goals, its potential performance remains underexplored. This paper quantifies China's need for emission reduction under the dual goals in 2030 by setting three scenarios for peak emissions. Four initial allocation schemes of carbon emission allowance (CEA) are compared according to the emission abatement costs (EACs) of China and its 30 provinces. By estimating the provincial marginal abatement cost curves, China's ETS is simulated through a nonlinear programming aimed at minimizing its total EACs. We find that in achieving the dual goals it makes economic sense to operationalize the ETS that would reduce China's EACs by 61.41%-80.33% in 2016-2030, at a carbon price of 394.55-425.75 RMB per ton CO2. Peaking China's emissions in 2030 is the preferred choice that will trigger the largest GDP in 2016-2030. The historical responsibility scheme is recommended for the CEA allocation because of the lowest initial EACs without ETS. To allow more room for economic growth after China peaks emissions, there is a need for overfulfilling the goal of carbon intensity reduction by 2030, which is consistent with China's latest climate mitigation targets. This research not only highlights the role of ETS in realizing China's dual goals, but provides a scientific framework for evaluating the environmental policies towards multiple goals in a cost-effective manner.
KeywordEmission trading scheme Peak emissions Carbon intensity Emission reduction quotas Marginal abatement costs China
DOI10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105638
WOS KeywordGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM-ANALYSIS ; TRADING SCHEME ; CO2 EMISSIONS ; ALLOWANCE ALLOCATION ; CLIMATE TARGETS ; MARKET AFFECT ; ENERGY ; REDUCTION ; PEAK ; EFFICIENCY
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[72074193] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71704157] ; Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province for Distinguished Young Scholars[LR19G030001] ; Major Program of Philosophy and Social Sciences by the Ministry of Education of China[20JZD12]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province for Distinguished Young Scholars ; Major Program of Philosophy and Social Sciences by the Ministry of Education of China
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectEngineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000667310900023
PublisherELSEVIER
Citation statistics
Cited Times:3[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/163758
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorFang, Kai
Affiliation1.Zhejiang Univ, Sch Publ Affairs, Zijigang Campus, Hangzhou 310058, Peoples R China
2.Zhejiang Univ, Ctr Social Welf & Governance, Hangzhou 310058, Peoples R China
3.Jilin Univ, Coll New Energy & Environm, Changchun 130012, Peoples R China
4.Beijing Forestry Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
5.Univ Tokyo, Ctr Spatial Informat Sci, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 2778568, Japan
6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Fang, Kai,Zhang, Qifeng,Song, Junnian,et al. How can national ETS affect carbon emissions and abatement costs? Evidence from the dual goals proposed by China's NDCs[J]. RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING,2021,171:13.
APA Fang, Kai,Zhang, Qifeng,Song, Junnian,Yu, Chang,Zhang, Haoran,&Liu, Haimeng.(2021).How can national ETS affect carbon emissions and abatement costs? Evidence from the dual goals proposed by China's NDCs.RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING,171,13.
MLA Fang, Kai,et al."How can national ETS affect carbon emissions and abatement costs? Evidence from the dual goals proposed by China's NDCs".RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 171(2021):13.
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