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Effect of different resumption strategies to flatten the potential COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopens: a modeling study in China
Ge, Yong1,2; Zhang, Wen-Bin1,2; Wang, Jianghao1; Liu, Mengxiao1,2; Ren, Zhoupeng1; Zhang, Xining1,2; Zhou, Chenghu1,2; Tian, Zhaoxing3
2021-03-29
Source PublicationBMC PUBLIC HEALTH
Volume21Issue:1Pages:10
Corresponding AuthorGe, Yong(gey@lreis.ac.cn) ; Zhou, Chenghu(zhouch@lreis.ac.cn)
AbstractBackgroundThe effect of the COVID-19 outbreak has led policymakers around the world to attempt transmission control. However, lockdown and shutdown interventions have caused new social problems and designating policy resumption for infection control when reopening society remains a crucial issue. We investigated the effects of different resumption strategies on COVID-19 transmission using a modeling study setting.MethodsWe employed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model to simulate COVID-19 outbreaks under five reopening strategies based on China's business resumption progress. The effect of each strategy was evaluated using the peak values of the epidemic curves vis-a-vis confirmed active cases and cumulative cases. Two-sample t-test was performed in order to affirm that the pick values in different scenarios are different.ResultsWe found that a hierarchy-based reopen strategy performed best when current epidemic prevention measures were maintained save for lockdown, reducing the peak number of active cases and cumulative cases by 50 and 44%, respectively. However, the modeled effect of each strategy decreased when the current intervention was lifted somewhat. Additional attention should be given to regions with significant numbers of migrants, as the potential risk of COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopening is intrinsically high.ConclusionsBusiness resumption strategies have the potential to eliminate COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopening without special control measures. The proposed resumption strategies focused mainly on decreasing the number of imported exposure cases, guaranteeing medical support for epidemic control, or decreasing active cases.
KeywordResumption strategy Hierarchy COVID-19 SEIR model China
DOI10.1186/s12889-021-10624-z
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China[41725006]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China
WOS Research AreaPublic, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS SubjectPublic, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS IDWOS:000636290500002
PublisherBMC
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/161803
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorGe, Yong; Zhou, Chenghu
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Peking Univ Int Hosp, Emergency Dept, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Ge, Yong,Zhang, Wen-Bin,Wang, Jianghao,et al. Effect of different resumption strategies to flatten the potential COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopens: a modeling study in China[J]. BMC PUBLIC HEALTH,2021,21(1):10.
APA Ge, Yong.,Zhang, Wen-Bin.,Wang, Jianghao.,Liu, Mengxiao.,Ren, Zhoupeng.,...&Tian, Zhaoxing.(2021).Effect of different resumption strategies to flatten the potential COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopens: a modeling study in China.BMC PUBLIC HEALTH,21(1),10.
MLA Ge, Yong,et al."Effect of different resumption strategies to flatten the potential COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopens: a modeling study in China".BMC PUBLIC HEALTH 21.1(2021):10.
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