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Observation-Constrained Projection of Global Flood Magnitudes With Anthropogenic Warming
Liu, Wenbin1; Yang, Tao1,2; Sun, Fubao1,2,3,4; Wang, Hong1; Feng, Yao1; Du, Muye1
2021-03-01
Source PublicationWATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
ISSN0043-1397
Volume57Issue:3Pages:16
Corresponding AuthorSun, Fubao(sunfb@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractRiver flooding is among the costliest natural disasters with severe economic, societal, and environmental consequences. However, substantial uncertainties remain in global and regional projections of future flood conditions simulated by global climate models (GCMs) and/or global hydrological models (GHMs). Using physical models coupled with machine learning (ML), for the first time, we project changes in flood magnitudes of 2062 global river basins by constraining physical-based streamflow simulations with observations under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming scenarios identified for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. We found that, during the validation period, the GHMs-simulated flood magnitudes would improve with reduced uncertainty over the selected river basins after ML with a Long Short-Term Memory network. Our estimation suggested that flood magnitudes would increase in many Northern Hemisphere mid- and high-latitude rivers (e.g., Lena River, Amur River and Volga River) but decrease in some river basins in southern Finland and Eastern Europe in future periods (i.e., 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming levels). In 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warmer worlds, the decreasing flood magnitudes in most South American rivers are associated with decreased soil moisture and increased evapotranspiration induced by warmer temperatures. Although the geographical pattern of changes in flood magnitudes for the +2 degrees C experiment is close to that of the +1.5 degrees C experiment, a 1.5 degrees C warming target is more likely to reduce flood magnitudes of many river basins worldwide (e.g., in central and eastern Siberia, Alaska/ Northwest Canada and South America).
DOI10.1029/2020WR028830
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Key Research and Development Program of China[2019YFA0606903] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42022005] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42025104] ; Program for the Kezhen-Bingwei Youth Talents from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences[2020RC004] ; Top-Notch Young Talents Program of China
Funding OrganizationNational Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Program for the Kezhen-Bingwei Youth Talents from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Top-Notch Young Talents Program of China
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources
WOS IDWOS:000635680800049
PublisherAMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/161761
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorSun, Fubao
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi, Peoples R China
4.Akesu Natl Stn Observ & Res Oasis Agroecosyst, Akesu, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liu, Wenbin,Yang, Tao,Sun, Fubao,et al. Observation-Constrained Projection of Global Flood Magnitudes With Anthropogenic Warming[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2021,57(3):16.
APA Liu, Wenbin,Yang, Tao,Sun, Fubao,Wang, Hong,Feng, Yao,&Du, Muye.(2021).Observation-Constrained Projection of Global Flood Magnitudes With Anthropogenic Warming.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,57(3),16.
MLA Liu, Wenbin,et al."Observation-Constrained Projection of Global Flood Magnitudes With Anthropogenic Warming".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 57.3(2021):16.
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