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Impacts of climatic warming on cropping system borders of China and potential adaptation strategies for regional agriculture development
Liu, Xueqi1; Liu, Yansui1,2; Liu, Zhengjia2; Chen, Zongfeng1,2
2021-02-10
Source PublicationSCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN0048-9697
Volume755Pages:13
Corresponding AuthorLiu, Yansui(liuys@igsnrr.ac.cn)
AbstractClimate warming and its corresponding impacts on agriculture system increasingly attach great attentions. Earlier studies more concerned the impacts of the cultivated area expansion under climate change. Yet limited knowledge is about the impacts of climate warming on the cropping index change with the shifts of cropping system border. In this study, we used climatic data (1961-2015) to firstly investigate impacts of warming temperature on potential cropping system border expansion of China, and further used agricultural statistical data and satellite-based land use data to analyze the response of current land system to potential cropping system border expansion. Results of this study indicated that obviously advanced SDT10 and prolonged EDT10 contributed to the 88.4% regions of increased AAT10 at the past half century. Moreover, the northward expansion of the suitable cultivated areas in different cropping systems provided advantages for potential multiple cropping index (PMCI) improvement. Unfortunately, this study found that a significantly declined multiple cropping index (MCI) was observed in the peri-urban regions and the provinces with large out-migration of agriculture labor. The evidently increased MCI was only greatly observed in Xinjiang province. Besides, the potential increment of multiple cropping index (PIMCI) for different cropping system border expansion regions presented a rising trend and reached 53.6% in 2015 due to warming climate. Particularly, the significantly increased PIMCI was observed in the Loess Plateau, the Inner Mongolia, the Middle-lower Yangtze Plain, Northeast China Plain, Southern China and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region. However, the response of current land system to the changes of PMCI and PIMCI was not timely. Based on the findings of our study, some potential agriculture development strategies were suggested by comprehensively considering regional natural conditions, agricultural production conditions and socioeconomic conditions. We hope these findings of this study could provide some valuable information for agricultural development policy decision-making. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KeywordClimate change Regional agriculture development Multiple cropping index Cropping system border China
DOI10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142415
WOS KeywordLAND-USE ; ACCUMULATED TEMPERATURE ; FARMLAND ABANDONMENT ; CROPLAND ABANDONMENT ; POVERTY ALLEVIATION ; MOUNTAINOUS AREAS ; FOOD SECURITY ; INTENSITY ; TRENDS ; POLICY
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41931293] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41971218] ; National Key Research and Development Program[2017YFC0504700] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA23070302]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000600537400059
PublisherELSEVIER
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/137188
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorLiu, Yansui
Affiliation1.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liu, Xueqi,Liu, Yansui,Liu, Zhengjia,et al. Impacts of climatic warming on cropping system borders of China and potential adaptation strategies for regional agriculture development[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2021,755:13.
APA Liu, Xueqi,Liu, Yansui,Liu, Zhengjia,&Chen, Zongfeng.(2021).Impacts of climatic warming on cropping system borders of China and potential adaptation strategies for regional agriculture development.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,755,13.
MLA Liu, Xueqi,et al."Impacts of climatic warming on cropping system borders of China and potential adaptation strategies for regional agriculture development".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 755(2021):13.
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