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representingmodeluncertaintybymultistochasticphysicsapproachesinthegrapesensemble
Xu Zhizhen1; Chen Jing2; Jin Zheng3; Li Hongqi2; Chen Fajing2
2020
Source Publicationadvancesinatmosphericsciences
ISSN0256-1530
Volume37Issue:4Pages:328
AbstractTo represent model uncertainties more comprehensively, a stochastically perturbed parameterization (SPP) scheme consisting of temporally and spatially varying perturbations of 18 parameters in the microphysics, convection, boundary layer, and surface layer parameterization schemes, as well as the stochastically perturbed parameterization tendencies (SPPT) scheme, and the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB) scheme, is applied in the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System—Regional Ensemble Prediction System (GRAPES-REPS) to evaluate and compare the general performance of various combinations of multiple stochastic physics schemes. Six experiments are performed for a summer month (1–30 June 2015) over China and multiple verification metrics are used. The results show that: (1) All stochastic experiments outperform the control (CTL) experiment, and all combinations of stochastic parameterization schemes perform better than the single SPP scheme, indicating that stochastic methods can effectively improve the forecast skill, and combinations of multiple stochastic parameterization schemes can better represent model uncertainties; (2) The combination of all three stochastic physics schemes (SPP, SPPT, and SKEB) outperforms any other combination of two schemes in precipitation forecasting and surface and upper-air verification to better represent the model uncertainties and improve the forecast skill; (3) Combining SKEB with SPP and/or SPPT results in a notable increase in the spread and reduction in outliers for the upper-air wind speed. SKEB directly perturbs the wind field and therefore its addition will greatly impact the upper-air wind-speed fields, and it contributes most to the improvement in spread and outliers for wind; (4) The introduction of SPP has a positive added value, and does not lead to large changes in the evolution of the kinetic energy (KE) spectrum at any wavelength; (5) The introduction of SPPT and SKEB would cause a 5%–10% and 30%–80% change in the KE of mesoscale systems, and all three stochastic schemes (SPP, SPPT, and SKEB) mainly affect the KE of mesoscale systems. This study indicates the potential of combining multiple stochastic physics schemes and lays a foundation for the future development and design of regional and global ensembles.
Language英语
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/135019
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Affiliation1.复旦大学
2.Numerical Weather Prediction Center, China Meteorological Administration
3.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Xu Zhizhen,Chen Jing,Jin Zheng,et al. representingmodeluncertaintybymultistochasticphysicsapproachesinthegrapesensemble[J]. advancesinatmosphericsciences,2020,37(4):328.
APA Xu Zhizhen,Chen Jing,Jin Zheng,Li Hongqi,&Chen Fajing.(2020).representingmodeluncertaintybymultistochasticphysicsapproachesinthegrapesensemble.advancesinatmosphericsciences,37(4),328.
MLA Xu Zhizhen,et al."representingmodeluncertaintybymultistochasticphysicsapproachesinthegrapesensemble".advancesinatmosphericsciences 37.4(2020):328.
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