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Climate factors and the East Asian summer monsoon may drive large outbreaks of dengue in China
Liu, Keke1,2; Hou, Xiang3; Ren, Zhoupeng4; Lowe, Rachel5,6,7; Wang, Yiguan8; Li, Ruiyun9; Liu, Xiaobo1; Sun, Jimin10; Lu, Liang1; Song, Xiupin1; Wu, Haixia1; Wang, Jun1; Yao, Wenwu10; Zhang, Chutian11; Sang, Shaowei12; Gao, Yuan1; Li, Jing13; Li, Jianping14,15; Xu, Lei1; Liu, Qiyong1
2020-04-01
Source PublicationENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH
ISSN0013-9351
Volume183Pages:8
Corresponding AuthorLi, Jianping(ljp@ouc.edu.cn) ; Xu, Lei(xulei@icdc.cn) ; Liu, Qiyong(liuqiyong@icdc.cn)
AbstractObjective: To investigate the relationship between climate variables, East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and large outbreaks of dengue in China. Methods: We constructed ecological niche models (ENMs) to analyse the influence of climate factors on dengue occurrence and predict dengue outbreak areas in China. Furthermore, we formulated a generalised additive model (GAM) to quantify the impact of the EASM on dengue occurrence in mainland China from 1980 to 2016. Results: Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter had a 62.6% contribution to dengue outbreaks. Southern China including Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian and Yunnan provinces are more vulnerable to dengue emergence and resurgence. In addition, we found population density had a 68.7% contribution to dengue widely distribution in China using ENMs. Statistical analysis indicated a dome-shaped association between EASM and dengue outbreak using GAM, with the greatest impact in the South-East of China. Besides, there was a positive nonlinear association between monthly average temperature and dengue occurrence. Conclusion: We demonstrated the influence of climate factors and East Asian summer monsoon on dengue outbreaks, providing a framework for future studies on the association between climate change and vector-borne diseases.
KeywordDengue EASM Climate variables Ecological niche model Generalised additive model
DOI10.1016/j.envres.2020.109190
WOS KeywordGLOBAL DISTRIBUTION ; RISK ; OSCILLATION ; VARIABLES ; DISTRICT ; BRAZIL ; FEVER ; AREAS
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC1200803] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC1200802] ; National Basic Research Program of China[2012CB955504] ; China Prosperity Strategic Programme Fund (SPF)[15LCI1] ; Shaanxi Key Research and Development Program[2018NY-135] ; Major Science Project of Shaanxi Academy of Science[2018K-04]
Funding OrganizationNational Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; China Prosperity Strategic Programme Fund (SPF) ; Shaanxi Key Research and Development Program ; Major Science Project of Shaanxi Academy of Science
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS IDWOS:000526177500019
PublisherACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
Citation statistics
Cited Times:12[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/133942
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorLi, Jianping; Xu, Lei; Liu, Qiyong
Affiliation1.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Diag & Treatment Infect Di, Natl Inst Communicable Dis Control & Prevent, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
2.Shandong First Med Univ, Shandong Acad Clin Med, Prov Hosp, Jinan 250021, Peoples R China
3.Shaanxi Inst Zool, Shaanxi Key Lab Anim Conservat, Xian 710032, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Math Modelling Infect Dis, London, England
6.London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Climate Change & Planetary Hlth, London, England
7.Barcelona Inst Global Hlth ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
8.Univ Queensland, Sch Biol Sci, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia
9.Imperial Coll London, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, MRC Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, Sch Publ Hlth,Fac Med, London W2 1PG, England
10.Zhejiang Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Hangzhou, Peoples R China
11.Northwest A&F Univ, Coll Nat Resources & Environm, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
12.Shandong Univ, Clin Epidemiol Unit, Qilu Hosp, Jinan, Peoples R China
13.Weifang Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Management, Div Environm Hlth, Weifang 261053, Shandong, Peoples R China
14.Ocean Univ China, Frontiers Sci Ctr Deep Ocean Multispheres & Earth, Inst Adv Ocean Studies, Key Lab Phys Oceanog, Qingdao 266100, Peoples R China
15.Pilot Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Lab Ocean Dynam & Climate, Qingdao 266237, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liu, Keke,Hou, Xiang,Ren, Zhoupeng,et al. Climate factors and the East Asian summer monsoon may drive large outbreaks of dengue in China[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH,2020,183:8.
APA Liu, Keke.,Hou, Xiang.,Ren, Zhoupeng.,Lowe, Rachel.,Wang, Yiguan.,...&Liu, Qiyong.(2020).Climate factors and the East Asian summer monsoon may drive large outbreaks of dengue in China.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH,183,8.
MLA Liu, Keke,et al."Climate factors and the East Asian summer monsoon may drive large outbreaks of dengue in China".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 183(2020):8.
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