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The Impact of Slumping Oil Price on the Situation of Tanker Shipping along the Maritime Silk Road
Mou, Naixia1,2; Xie, Yanxin1; Yang, Tengfei3; Zhang, Hengcai2; Kim, Yoo Ri4
2019-09-01
Source PublicationSUSTAINABILITY
Volume11Issue:17Pages:16
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Hengcai(zhanghc@lreis.ac.cn)
AbstractNearly 70% of the world's maritime crude oil transportation relies on the Maritime Silk Road (MSR). In order to deeply explore the impact of slumping oil price on the shipping situation of tanker along the MSR, this paper establishes the relationship between monthly ship and oil price through Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. Distributions of cargo flow before and after the oil price slumped are compared to explore the changing law of tanker shipping situation. The study finds: (1) The correlation between the cargo flow situation of the tanker seaborne export and oil price, where the export cargo flow correlation is stronger than that of the import cargo flow. (2) The MSR tanker shipping situation is lagging (3 months) behind the impact of oil price. The lag effect in Europe, North Asia and East Asia is strong while that in Southeast Asia and South Asia is weak. (3) After the oil price slumped, the tanker shipping cargo flow increased less during the crude oil export stage, and the increase in the crude oil shipping trade after the transfer period was larger. The research results can provide a scientific basis for improving the decision-making ability of the crude oil shipping market and formulating maritime operations management measures.
KeywordMaritime Silk Road oil price tanker shipping situation ARDL model cargo flow
DOI10.3390/su11174796
WOS KeywordCRUDE-OIL ; CROSS-CORRELATIONS ; NETWORK ; SHOCKS ; VOLATILITY ; EVOLUTION ; COUNTRIES ; DEMAND ; TRADE
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41771476] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41771436] ; Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province[ZR2016DM02] ; Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[ZDRW-ZS-2017-4-3]
Funding OrganizationNational Natural Science Foundation of China ; Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province ; Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
WOS Research AreaScience & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectGreen & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS IDWOS:000486877700284
PublisherMDPI
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/129761
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Hengcai
Affiliation1.Shandong Univ Sci & Technol, Coll Geomat, Qingdao 266590, Shandong, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Remote Sensing & Digital Earth, Beijing 100094, Peoples R China
4.Univ Surrey, Sch Hospitality & Tourism Management, Fac Arts & Social Sci, Guildford GU2 7UU, Surrey, England
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Mou, Naixia,Xie, Yanxin,Yang, Tengfei,et al. The Impact of Slumping Oil Price on the Situation of Tanker Shipping along the Maritime Silk Road[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2019,11(17):16.
APA Mou, Naixia,Xie, Yanxin,Yang, Tengfei,Zhang, Hengcai,&Kim, Yoo Ri.(2019).The Impact of Slumping Oil Price on the Situation of Tanker Shipping along the Maritime Silk Road.SUSTAINABILITY,11(17),16.
MLA Mou, Naixia,et al."The Impact of Slumping Oil Price on the Situation of Tanker Shipping along the Maritime Silk Road".SUSTAINABILITY 11.17(2019):16.
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