IGSNRR OpenIR
Economic Effects of Drought on Agriculture in North China
Lin Yingzhi1; Deng Xiangzheng2; Jin Qin1
2013
Source PublicationInternational Journal of Disaster Risk Science
ISSN2095-0055
Volume4Issue:2Pages:59
AbstractIn the past three decades, global agriculture losses have continuously grown due to increasingly severe droughts. Compared with direct economic effects, there are great difficulties in evaluating the indirect economic effects of drought, which has severely lagged behind the urgent information needs for decision making. This study tries to solve the perplexity in the evaluation of the effects of drought on the price fluctuation of agricultural products by building a partial equilibrium model that describes the balancing process of supply and demand quantitatively. Using this model, a scenario analysis is applied to evaluate the price fluctuation of agricultural products caused by drought in North China. The results indicate that there is no major impact of drought on the market prices of eight major agricultural products. Even with the occurrence of a severe drought in North China, market prices of agricultural products will rise no more than 3.59 percent, which is less than the normal market price fluctuations of China's agricultural products. This study provides a tool for evaluating indirect economic effects of drought. The results of our case study could support decision making for China's food market regulation.
Language英语
Funding Project[National Natural Science Foundation of China]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/124637
Collection中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Affiliation1.中国地质大学
2.中国科学院农业政策研究中心
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Lin Yingzhi,Deng Xiangzheng,Jin Qin. Economic Effects of Drought on Agriculture in North China[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science,2013,4(2):59.
APA Lin Yingzhi,Deng Xiangzheng,&Jin Qin.(2013).Economic Effects of Drought on Agriculture in North China.International Journal of Disaster Risk Science,4(2),59.
MLA Lin Yingzhi,et al."Economic Effects of Drought on Agriculture in North China".International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 4.2(2013):59.
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