Zhang Yanwei1; Ge Quansheng1; Jiang Fengqing2; Zheng Jingyun1; Wei Wenshou2
Source Publicationsciencesincoldandaridregions
AbstractIn this paper, an analysis, with the simulation of PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies), was made for future precipitation extremes, under SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 and B2 in IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) AR4. The precipitation extremes were calculated and analyzed by ETCCDI (Climate Change Detection and Indices). The results show that: (1) In Present Scenario (1961 1900), PRECIS could capture the spatial pattern of precipitation in Xinjiang. (2) The simulated annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation in Xinjiang had a significantly positive trend and its variability had been deeply impacted by terrain. There was a strong association between increasing trend and the extreme precipitation's increase in frequency and intensity during 1961-2008. Under SRES A2 and B2, extreme precipitation indicated an increasing tendency at the end of the 21st century. The extreme summer pre- cipitation increased prominently in a year. (3) PREC1S's simulation under SRES A2 and B2 indicated increased frequency of heavy precipitation events and also enhancement in their intensity towards the end of the 21 st century. Both A2 and B2 scenarios show similar patterns of projected changes in precipitation extremes towards the end of the 21st century. However, the magnitude of changes in B2 scenario was on the lower side. In case of extreme precipitation, variation between models can exceed both internal variability and variability of different SRES.
Document Type期刊论文
First Author Affilication中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhang Yanwei,Ge Quansheng,Jiang Fengqing,et al. assessingchangesinextremeprecipitationoverxinjiangusingregionalclimatemodelofprecis[J]. sciencesincoldandaridregions,2015,007(002):170.
APA Zhang Yanwei,Ge Quansheng,Jiang Fengqing,Zheng Jingyun,&Wei Wenshou.(2015).assessingchangesinextremeprecipitationoverxinjiangusingregionalclimatemodelofprecis.sciencesincoldandaridregions,007(002),170.
MLA Zhang Yanwei,et al."assessingchangesinextremeprecipitationoverxinjiangusingregionalclimatemodelofprecis".sciencesincoldandaridregions 007.002(2015):170.
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